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Stal Mielec v Warta Poznań

Stal Mielec

2–1Full time

Warta Poznań

I Liga · SUN 11 OCT · Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Stal Mielec 2–1 Warta Poznań STAL MIELEC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stal Mielec win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stal Mielec win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stal Mielec was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
2′Much as we predicted: Stal Mielec was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–35
10′M. Cebula scores for Stal Mielec on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–19–15
15′11′ and it is 2–0: M. Cebula on the scoresheet for Stal Mielec. 2–0 · 85–10–5
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
20′11′ and it is 2–0: M. Cebula on the scoresheet for Stal Mielec. 2–0 · 86–9–4
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
25′We published Stal Mielec at 42%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
28′⚽ GOAL · 6' Stal Mielec 2–0 Warta Poznań · M. Cebula
28′⚽ GOAL · 11' Stal Mielec 2–0 Warta Poznań · M. Cebula
31′We published Stal Mielec at 42%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–0 · 88–9–3
40′We published Stal Mielec at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′We published Stal Mielec at 42%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Stal Mielec 2–0 Warta Poznań
45′SECOND HALF Stal Mielec 2–0 Warta Poznań
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Warta Poznań · On: K. Lepczynski · Off: B. Lelito
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Warta Poznań · On: K. Lepczynski · Off: B. Lelito
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Stal Mielec win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Warta Poznań · On: M. Smoczynski · Off: M. Stanek
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Warta Poznań · On: S. Steblecki · Off: F. Rejczyk
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stal Mielec · On: M. Wyparlo · Off: E. Ziobron
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stal Mielec · On: T. Gmur · Off: S. Oure
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Warta Poznań · On: K. Wybieralski · Off: K. Szymanek
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Stal Mielec 2–1 Warta Poznań · M. Cebula
71′⚽ GOAL · 72' Stal Mielec 2–1 Warta Poznań
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Stal Mielec · On: M. Domanski · Off: M. Cebula
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Stal Mielec · On: P. Kruszelnicki · Off: K. Cybulski
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Stal Mielec · On: K. Koscielny · Off: P. Wlazlo
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Stal Mielec 3–1 Warta Poznań · J. Apolinarski
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Stal Mielec 3–1 Warta Poznań
FTFULL TIME Stal Mielec 2–1 Warta Poznań
FTStal Mielec 2–1 Warta Poznań · Stal Mielec win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Stal Mielec win42%

Draw24%

Warta Poznań win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueStadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

RefereeP. Pazdecki

Line-ups

Stal Mielec

Warta Poznań

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stal Mielec

Warta Poznań

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stal Mielec

Formation not confirmed

99 M. Gostomski

29 P. Tupaj

44 I. Puerto

94 B. Kwiecien

5 H. Matynia

78 K. Cybulski

18 P. Wlazlo

32 F. Gerbowski

47 S. Oure

7 M. Cebula

20 E. Ziobron

Coach · Damian Skiba

Substitutes

41 · P. Chrapusta

2 · B. Kukulowicz

10 · M. Domanski

14 · K. Koscielny

19 · T. Gmur

23 · K. Getinger

38 · M. Wyparlo

88 · P. Prajsnar

90 · P. Kruszelnicki

Warta Poznań

Formation not confirmed

42 L. Przybylak

6 B. Lelito

3 O. Azatsky

24 D. Avdeev

7 J. Apolinarski

22 K. Lysiak

8 F. Rejczyk

17 M. Stefaniak

11 A. Wolczek

20 K. Szymanek

9 M. Stanek

Coach · Maciej Tokarczyk

Substitutes

33 · B. Piechowiak

2 · K. Lepczynski

16 · K. Wybieralski

21 · K. Kalata

23 · P. Kusztal

29 · K. Rychert

71 · S. Steblecki

77 · J. Kendzia

99 · M. Smoczynski

Our number · stal mielec winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make Stal Mielec a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Mielec win	42%	34%	+8
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Warta Poznań win	34%	40%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	63%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+2
Stal Mielec or draw	66%	60%	+6
Stal Mielec clean sheet	22%	–	–
Warta Poznań clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.7 5.7 4.7 2.4 1 6.4 10.7 7.7 3.9 2 5.8 8.6 6.5 3.3 3 3.3 4.9 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Mielec down, Warta Poznań across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,628 I Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Stal Mielec at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Warta Poznań away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Stal Mielec, 1.52 for Warta Poznań. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in I Liga

STAL MIELEC

WLLDLL5–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–7

WARTA POZNAŃ

LWLLWW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
5	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
6	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
13	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6