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Stal Mielec v Chrobry Głogów

Stal Mielec

0–0Full time

Chrobry Głogów

I Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Stal Mielec 0–0 Chrobry Głogów STAL MIELEC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stal Mielec win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.849

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stal Mielec win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stal Mielec 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF Stal Mielec v Chrobry Głogów
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Stal Mielec win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Stal Mielec 0–0 Chrobry Głogów
46′SECOND HALF Stal Mielec 0–0 Chrobry Głogów
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–43–28
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Stal Mielec
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Chrobry Głogów
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Stal Mielec win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Chrobry Głogów
62′We said Stal Mielec at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Sadiku · Off: K. Ibe-Torti
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chrobry Głogów · On: R. Bak · Off: A. Bukowski
66′We said Stal Mielec at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Chrobry Głogów
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Stal Mielec · On: E. Ziobron · Off: T. Gmur
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Stal Mielec · On: P. Kruszelnicki · Off: M. Wyparlo
74′We said Stal Mielec at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chrobry Głogów · On: W. Staszak · Off: A. Rybak
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Stal Mielec win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
79′We said Stal Mielec at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stal Mielec · On: S. Oure · Off: M. Cebula
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stal Mielec · On: M. Domanski · Off: K. Cybulski
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Stal Mielec
84′We said Stal Mielec at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Stal Mielec win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Stal Mielec
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Stal Mielec · On: K. Getinger · Off: H. Matynia
91′We said Stal Mielec at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Chrobry Głogów · On: M. Bartolewski · Off: Y. Sharabura
FTFULL TIME Stal Mielec 0–0 Chrobry Głogów
FTStal Mielec 0–0 Chrobry Głogów · Stal Mielec win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Stal Mielec just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stal Mielec 38%, draw 25%, Chrobry Głogów 37%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Stal Mielec v Chrobry GłogówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stal Mielec win38%

Draw25%

Chrobry Głogów win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stal Mielec

Chrobry Głogów

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stal mielec winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make Stal Mielec a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stal Mielec v Chrobry Głogów~~1.52 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~14 v 11

~~The market · Stal Mielec win~~40% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stal Mielec win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Mielec win	38%	40%	−2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Chrobry Głogów win	37%	33%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	53%	+5
Both teams to score	61%	57%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	32%	+4
Stal Mielec or draw	63%	67%	−4
Stal Mielec clean sheet	23%	–	–
Chrobry Głogów clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 7.0 5.5 2.8 1 7.1 11.3 8.2 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.2 3.1 3 2.9 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Mielec down, Chrobry Głogów across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 I Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stal Mielec at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chrobry Głogów away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Stal Mielec, 1.50 for Chrobry Głogów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHR 2–1 STA · STA 1–2 CHR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug

STAL MIELEC

LDLLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–7 · 2–1 · 0–3

CHROBRY GŁOGÓW

WDDLLL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9