Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki prediction · I Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ruch ChorzówDrawPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ruch Chorzów 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ruch Chorzów are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ruch Chorzów 44%, draw 26%, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 30%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ruch Chorzów win44%

Draw26%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSuperauto.pl Stadion Slaski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ruch Chorzów

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ruch chorzów winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market57%

Us44%

~~Market~~57%

We make Ruch Chorzów a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki~~1.54 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 21~~7 v 1

~~The market · Ruch Chorzów win~~57% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ruch Chorzów win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ruch Chorzów win	44%	57%	−13
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win	30%	19%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Ruch Chorzów or draw	70%	81%	−11
Ruch Chorzów clean sheet	29%	–	–
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.8 7.4 4.8 1 9.3 12.1 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 3.8 4.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ruch Chorzów down, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 I Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ruch Chorzów at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Ruch Chorzów, 1.24 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RUC 2–2 POG · POG 2–2 RUC · RUC 4–1 POG · POG 1–1 RUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

RUCH CHORZÓW

LWDDWW0–2 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI

DWLWWL2–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9