Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Ruch Chorzów 3–0 Odra Opole RUCH CHORZÓW WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ruch Chorzów win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.413

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ruch Chorzów win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ruch Chorzów 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole
33′We said Ruch Chorzów at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ruch Chorzów 1–0 Odra Opole
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Ruch Chorzów win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–5
35′Ruch Chorzów score on 34′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Ruch Chorzów win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Ruch Chorzów 1–0 Odra Opole
45′SECOND HALF Ruch Chorzów 1–0 Odra Opole
49′We said Ruch Chorzów at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ruch Chorzów
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Odra Opole
58′We said Ruch Chorzów at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ruch Chorzów 2–0 Odra Opole
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ruch Chorzów win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
59′Ruch Chorzów find the net on 59′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
60′Ruch Chorzów ahead on 58′ through T. Sutherland. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Ruch Chorzów win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Odra Opole · On: B. Spacil · Off: M. Spychala
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Odra Opole · On: B. Baranski · Off: M. Stas
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ruch Chorzów · On: K. Rostek · Off: T. Sutherland
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' J. Pochciol · Odra Opole
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ruch Chorzów · On: M. Pawlowski · Off: D. Szczepan
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ruch Chorzów · On: S. Nagamatsu · Off: M. Chrapek
75′We said Ruch Chorzów at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ruch Chorzów 3–0 Odra Opole
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′A goal for Ruch Chorzów on 76′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Odra Opole · On: F. Kupczyk · Off: B. Biedrzycki
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ruch Chorzów · On: M. Pawlowski · Off: D. Szczepan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Odra Opole · On: J. Perez · Off: P. Szysz
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Odra Opole · On: S. Gieroba · Off: M. Feliks
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ruch Chorzów · On: D. Ventura · Off: P. Szwedzik
91′3–0 at the end. Our 48% on Ruch Chorzów comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Ruch Chorzów 3–0 Odra Opole
FTRuch Chorzów 3–0 Odra Opole · Ruch Chorzów win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ruch Chorzów are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ruch Chorzów 48%, draw 28%, Odra Opole 24%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Ruch Chorzów v Odra OpoleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Ruch Chorzów win48%

Draw28%

Odra Opole win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSuperauto.pl Stadion Slaski

Line-ups

Ruch Chorzów

Odra Opole

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ruch Chorzów

Odra Opole

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ruch Chorzów	10	0	15
12	Odra Opole	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ruch Chorzów

Formation not confirmed

44 J. Wrabel

15 M. Konczkowski

28 N. Lesniak-Paduch

17 A. Lukic

3 A. del Moral

20 S. Szymanski

6 M. Chrapek

7 J. Kristan

21 P. Szwedzik

95 D. Szczepan

10 T. Sutherland

Coach · Waldemar Fornalik

Substitutes

82 · J. Bielecki

5 · M. Rosol

9 · M. Pawlowski

11 · S. Cieslak

14 · F. Wojcik

18 · S. Nagamatsu

24 · A. Komor

25 · D. Ventura

88 · K. Rostek

Odra Opole

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Mleczko

52 Cassio

3 J. Piroch

6 J. Pochciol

22 M. Spychala

24 M. Nalepa

14 T. Gajda

23 B. Biedrzycki

20 P. Szysz

9 M. Feliks

73 M. Stas

Coach · Lukasz Tomczyk

Substitutes

30 · A. Haluch

5 · F. Franczak

10 · B. Baranski

11 · J. Perez

17 · B. Spacil

25 · K. Palacz

33 · F. Kupczyk

55 · M. Pingot

77 · S. Gieroba

Our number · ruch chorzów winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Ruch Chorzów a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole~~1.40 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~7 v 12

~~The market · Ruch Chorzów win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ruch Chorzów win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ruch Chorzów win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Odra Opole win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	53%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	73%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Ruch Chorzów or draw	76%	76%	0
Ruch Chorzów clean sheet	40%	–	–
Odra Opole clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.6 8.6 4.2 1 13.4 13.0 5.7 2 9.6 8.7 4.0 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ruch Chorzów down, Odra Opole across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,634 I Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ruch Chorzów at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Odra Opole away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Ruch Chorzów, 0.91 for Odra Opole. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RUC 2–0 ODR · ODR 1–1 RUC · RUC 6–0 ODR · ODR 0–2 RUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug

RUCH CHORZÓW

WLWDDW1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

ODRA OPOLE

DDDLLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
5	Warta Poznań	10	+3	15
6	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
7	Ruch Chorzów	10	0	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12
12	Odra Opole	10	−1	12
13	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9