Puszcza Niepołomice v Polonia Bytom prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Polonia Bytom PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puszcza Niepołomice win~~43%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.630

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puszcza Niepołomice win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Puszcza Niepołomice 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Puszcza Niepołomice v Polonia Bytom
9′Little has changed for our model: Puszcza Niepołomice 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Puszcza Niepołomice
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Polonia Bytom
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Puszcza Niepołomice
45′HALF-TIME Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 Polonia Bytom
45′🟨 YELLOW · 35' F. Szabaciuk · Puszcza Niepołomice
45′🟨 YELLOW · 37' D. Konieczny · Polonia Bytom
45′🟨 YELLOW · 40' M. Cholewiak · Puszcza Niepołomice
46′SECOND HALF Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 Polonia Bytom
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Puszcza Niepołomice
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: O. Gerstenstein · Off: A. Trubeha
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: O. Korczakowski · Off: M. Cholewiak
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: B. Kurzeja · Off: A. Gjoni
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Polonia Bytom · On: P. Stefanski · Off: K. Orlik
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Polonia Bytom · On: D. Rumin · Off: K. Wojtyra
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Polonia Bytom
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: I. Pieprzyca · Off: F. Nascimento
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Polonia Bytom · On: K. Michalski · Off: L. Zielinski
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Polonia Bytom · On: A. Malachowski · Off: M. Labojko
FTFULL TIME Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Polonia Bytom
FTPuszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Polonia Bytom · Puszcza Niepołomice win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Puszcza Niepołomice win43%

Draw26%

Polonia Bytom win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

RefereeP. Idzik

Line-ups

Puszcza Niepołomice

Polonia Bytom

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Puszcza Niepołomice

Polonia Bytom

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Puszcza Niepołomice

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Andrzejczak

33 M. Strajnar

14 F. Szabaciuk

5 K. Stepien

6 O. Kocar

17 K. Iwao

8 F. Nascimento

34 A. Piekarski

10 M. Cholewiak

53 A. Trubeha

9 A. Gjoni

Coach · Tomasz Tulacz

Substitutes

97 · W. Kowal

11 · O. Korczakowski

13 · F. Jaworski

21 · O. Gerstenstein

28 · I. Pieprzyca

64 · K. Wolowiec

77 · W. Kaminski

99 · B. Kurzeja

Polonia Bytom

Formation not confirmed

1 W. Banasik

14 G. Szymusik

77 J. Szymanski

30 O. Krzyzak

17 K. Wolkowicz

8 M. Labojko

25 D. Konieczny

22 K. Orlik

11 K. Andrzejczak

7 L. Zielinski

9 K. Wojtyra

Coach · Konrad Gerega

Substitutes

40 · K. Mazur

4 · A. Malachowski

5 · B. Mioc

6 · M. Wolski

10 · K. Michalski

13 · A. Gajgier

16 · P. Stefanski

19 · D. Rumin

Our number · puszcza niepołomice winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

43% The market36%

Us43%

~~Market~~36%

We make Puszcza Niepołomice a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · puszcza niepołomice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puszcza Niepołomice win	43%	36%	+6
Draw	26%	28%	−3
Polonia Bytom win	32%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	47%	+8
Both teams to score	57%	53%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	71%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	32%	27%	+5
Puszcza Niepołomice or draw	68%	65%	+4
Puszcza Niepołomice clean sheet	27%	–	–
Polonia Bytom clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 7.0 4.9 2.2 1 8.4 12.0 7.5 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.8 2.5 3 3.6 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puszcza Niepołomice down, Polonia Bytom across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,628 I Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Bytom away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1.31 for Polonia Bytom. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PUS 2–1 POL · POL 1–1 PUS

Form · last six in I Liga

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE

WLLWLL3–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

POLONIA BYTOM

LDDDDD2–5 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
5	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
6	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
13	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6