Home › Football › I Liga › Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk

Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk

Puszcza Niepołomice

2–1Full time

Lechia Gdansk

I Liga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Lechia Gdansk LECHIA GDANSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lechia Gdansk win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.645

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lechia Gdansk win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lechia Gdansk was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Lechia Gdansk
36′Puszcza Niepołomice find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
36′We said Lechia Gdansk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Lechia Gdansk
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Lechia Gdansk win: 39% at kick-off, 12% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Puszcza Niepołomice win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Lechia Gdansk win 35%)
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' M. Cholewiak · Puszcza Niepołomice
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Lechia Gdansk win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Puszcza Niepołomice win 67%)
45′HALF-TIME Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 Lechia Gdansk
46′SECOND HALF Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 Lechia Gdansk
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Puszcza Niepołomice
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: K. Wolowiec · Off: O. Kocar
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Puszcza Niepołomice
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Lechia Gdansk win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–45–29
59′We said Lechia Gdansk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–48–27
61′Puszcza Niepołomice find the net on 60′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–21–6
61′We said Lechia Gdansk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 74–21–6
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lechia Gdansk · On: J. Adkonis · Off: H. Ivanov
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lechia Gdansk · On: T. Wojtowicz · Off: J. Mena
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Lechia Gdansk
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Lechia Gdansk win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Puszcza Niepołomice win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 49%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lechia Gdansk · On: V. Blanuta · Off: M. Glogowski
66′We said Lechia Gdansk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: W. Kaminski · Off: A. Trubeha
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: O. Gerstenstein · Off: K. Iwao
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Puszcza Niepołomice
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lechia Gdansk · On: I. Bambecki · Off: K. Dodaj
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lechia Gdansk · On: B. Sonko · Off: B. Szczepankiewicz
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: B. Kurzeja · Off: A. Gjoni
89′A goal for Puszcza Niepołomice on 88′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Puszcza Niepołomice 2–0 Lechia Gdansk
94′Lechia Gdansk score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: I. Pieprzyca · Off: F. Nascimento
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Lechia Gdansk
FTFULL TIME Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Lechia Gdansk
FTPuszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Lechia Gdansk · Lechia Gdansk win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lechia Gdansk just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Puszcza Niepołomice 35%, draw 26%, Lechia Gdansk 39%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia GdanskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Puszcza Niepołomice win35%

Draw26%

Lechia Gdansk win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puszcza Niepołomice

Lechia Gdansk

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · I Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lechia gdansk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Lechia Gdansk a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk~~1.35 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~18 v 4

~~The market · Lechia Gdansk win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lechia Gdansk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puszcza Niepołomice win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Lechia Gdansk win	39%	40%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Puszcza Niepołomice or draw	61%	60%	+1
Puszcza Niepołomice clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lechia Gdansk clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.7 8.6 6.4 3.1 1 8.0 12.1 8.4 4.1 2 5.6 7.9 5.6 2.7 3 2.5 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puszcza Niepołomice down, Lechia Gdansk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 I Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lechia Gdansk away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1.44 for Lechia Gdansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PUS 1–1 LEC · LEC 0–2 PUS · PUS 4–1 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE

WLLLWL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

LECHIA GDANSK

WLWWWW4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 7–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9