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Polonia Warszawa v Miedz Legnica

Polonia Warszawa
1–1Full time
Miedz Legnica

I Liga · FRI 23 OCT · Stadion Polonii

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31
Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica POLONIA WARSZAWA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Polonia Warszawa win41%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.827
The market’s Brier score0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Polonia Warszawa win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Polonia Warszawa 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Polonia Warszawa v Miedz Legnica
  4. 2′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–15
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Polonia Warszawa 1–0 Miedz Legnica
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 3′Polonia Warszawa score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–15
  8. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
  9. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
  10. 16′Miedz Legnica find the net on 16′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–29–32
  11. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Polonia Warszawa
  12. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Polonia Warszawa win 35%)
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
  14. 46′HALF-TIME Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
  15. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  16. 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 31–43–26
  17. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Miedz Legnica
  18. 56′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–45–25
  19. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Polonia Warszawa
  20. 66′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
  21. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Polonia Warszawa · On: I. Durmus · Off: E. Terpilowski
  22. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Polonia Warszawa · On: S. Kowalczyk · Off: S. Skrabb
  23. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Miedz Legnica · On: D. Stanclik · Off: K. Fucak
  24. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Miedz Legnica · On: G. Norlin · Off: M. Bochnak
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Polonia Warszawa · On: A. Kapusta · Off: J. Paszkowski
  26. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  27. 74′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
  28. 79′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–12
  29. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  30. 84′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–8
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Miedz Legnica · On: I. Korczakowski · Off: J. Letniowski
  32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Polonia Warszawa · On: K. Kostorz · Off: P. Janasik
  33. 91′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  34. 94′1–1 at the end. Our 41% on Polonia Warszawa misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
  36. FTPolonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica · Polonia Warszawa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polonia Warszawa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polonia Warszawa 41%, draw 26%, Miedz Legnica 33%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Polonia Warszawa v Miedz LegnicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Polonia Warszawa win41%
Draw26%
Miedz Legnica win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Polonii

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polonia Warszawa

Miedz Legnica

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Polonia Warszawa11+520
8Miedz Legnica11+717

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia warszawa winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
41% The market49%
Us41%
Market49%

We make Polonia Warszawa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Polonia Warszawa v Miedz Legnica1.47 – 1.31
Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 20 v 172 v 8
The market · Polonia Warszawa win49% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:44
Our probability · Polonia Warszawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Polonia Warszawa win41%49%−8
Draw26%25%+1
Miedz Legnica win33%26%+7
Over 2.5 goals52%60%−8
Both teams to score56%62%−6
Over 1.5 goals77%81%−4
Over 3.5 goals30%40%−10
Polonia Warszawa or draw67%74%−7
Polonia Warszawa clean sheet27%––
Miedz Legnica clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 6.7 7.9 5.3 2.3 1 8.9 12.2 7.7 3.4 2 6.7 8.6 5.6 2.5 3 3.3 4.3 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Warszawa down, Miedz Legnica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsPOL 1–1 MIE · MIE 1–1 POL · MIE 2–3 POL · POL 0–1 MIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug

POLONIA WARSZAWA

LLDWWW2–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

MIEDZ LEGNICA

WDLLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki11+1021
2Polonia Warszawa11+520
3Nieciecza11+420
4Lechia Gdansk11+419
5Warta Poznań11+418
6Ruch Chorzów11+318
7ŁKS Łódź11+318
8Miedz Legnica11+717
9Stal Rzeszów11−517
10Polonia Bytom11−115
11Chrobry Głogów11−212
12Pogoń Siedlce11−212
13Odra Opole11−412
14Stal Mielec11−1112
15Arka Gdynia11−211
16Podbeskidzie11−211
17Unia Skierniewice11−611
18Puszcza Niepołomice11−59

The competition's standings before kick-off.