

Polonia Warszawa v Miedz Legnica
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz LegnicaI Liga · FRI 23 OCT · Stadion Polonii
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Polonia Warszawa win at 41%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Polonia Warszawa 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Polonia Warszawa v Miedz Legnica
- 2′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–15
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Polonia Warszawa 1–0 Miedz Legnica
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
- 3′Polonia Warszawa score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–15
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
- 16′Miedz Legnica find the net on 16′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–29–32
- 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Polonia Warszawa
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Polonia Warszawa win 35%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
- 46′HALF-TIME Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
- 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 31–43–26
- 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Miedz Legnica
- 56′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–45–25
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Polonia Warszawa
- 66′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Polonia Warszawa · On: I. Durmus · Off: E. Terpilowski
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Polonia Warszawa · On: S. Kowalczyk · Off: S. Skrabb
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Miedz Legnica · On: D. Stanclik · Off: K. Fucak
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Miedz Legnica · On: G. Norlin · Off: M. Bochnak
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Polonia Warszawa · On: A. Kapusta · Off: J. Paszkowski
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
- 74′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
- 79′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–12
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Polonia Warszawa win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
- 84′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–8
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Miedz Legnica · On: I. Korczakowski · Off: J. Letniowski
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Polonia Warszawa · On: K. Kostorz · Off: P. Janasik
- 91′We said Polonia Warszawa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 94′1–1 at the end. Our 41% on Polonia Warszawa misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica
- FTPolonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica · Polonia Warszawa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Polonia Warszawa are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Polonia Warszawa 41%, draw 26%, Miedz Legnica 33%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Polonia Warszawa win41%
Miedz Legnica win33%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueStadion Polonii
Match timeline
All events
Polonia WarszawaMIN
Miedz LegnicaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga
Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Polonia Warszawa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa win | 41% | 49% | −8 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Miedz Legnica win | 33% | 26% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 60% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 40% | −10 |
| Polonia Warszawa or draw | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Polonia Warszawa clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Miedz Legnica clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug
POLONIA WARSZAWA
MIEDZ LEGNICA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Warta Poznań | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 6 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | −5 | 17 |
| 10 | Polonia Bytom | 11 | −1 | 15 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 12 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | −4 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 11 | −11 | 12 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 11 | −2 | 11 |
| 16 | Podbeskidzie | 11 | −2 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | −6 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 11 | −5 | 9 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Warta Poznań
Ruch Chorzów
ŁKS Łódź
Stal Rzeszów
Polonia Bytom
Chrobry Głogów
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Arka Gdynia
Podbeskidzie
Unia Skierniewice
Puszcza Niepołomice