Polonia Bytom v Chrobry Głogów prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Polonia Bytom 3–2 Chrobry Głogów POLONIA BYTOM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Polonia Bytom win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.397

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Polonia Bytom win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Polonia Bytom was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Polonia Bytom v Chrobry Głogów
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Polonia Bytom
23′K. Andrzejczak scores for Polonia Bytom on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
23′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Polonia Bytom 1–0 Chrobry Głogów · K. Andrzejczak
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Polonia Bytom win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′Polonia Bytom score on 31′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
32′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Polonia Bytom 2–0 Chrobry Głogów
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Polonia Bytom win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
36′31′: B. Mioc on the scoresheet for Polonia Bytom, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
36′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
43′Polonia Bytom find the net on 43′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Polonia Bytom 3–0 Chrobry Głogów
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Polonia Bytom win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
44′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Polonia Bytom 3–0 Chrobry Głogów
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Sadiku · Off: A. Klimek
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Rybak · Off: F. Lachendro
46′SECOND HALF Polonia Bytom 3–0 Chrobry Głogów
62′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Polonia Bytom · On: P. Stefanski · Off: L. Zielinski
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Polonia Bytom · On: D. Rumin · Off: K. Wojtyra
66′J. Gric scores for Chrobry Głogów on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
66′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chrobry Głogów · On: M. Ozimek · Off: Y. Sharabura
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Polonia Bytom 3–1 Chrobry Głogów · J. Gric
74′Chrobry Głogów score on 74′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 84–14–2
74′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it 84%. 3–2 · 84–14–2
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Polonia Bytom 3–2 Chrobry Głogów
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Polonia Bytom win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
75′We published Polonia Bytom at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–1
76′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 86–13–1
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Polonia Bytom · On: D. Konieczny · Off: B. Mioc
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Polonia Bytom · On: M. Wolski · Off: M. Labojko
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Polonia Bytom · On: A. Malachowski · Off: G. Szymusik
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chrobry Głogów · On: K. Ibe-Torti · Off: R. Bak
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Polonia Bytom win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chrobry Głogów · On: F. Zabrowarny · Off: M. Bartolewski
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Polonia Bytom
FTFULL TIME Polonia Bytom 3–2 Chrobry Głogów
FTPolonia Bytom 3–2 Chrobry Głogów · Polonia Bytom win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polonia Bytom are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polonia Bytom 44%, draw 26%, Chrobry Głogów 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Polonia Bytom v Chrobry GłogówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Polonia Bytom win44%

Draw26%

Chrobry Głogów win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBoisko ul. Pilkarska 8

RefereeS. Lezny

Line-ups

Polonia Bytom

Chrobry Głogów

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polonia Bytom

Chrobry Głogów

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Polonia Bytom

Formation not confirmed

1 W. Banasik

14 G. Szymusik

77 J. Szymanski

30 O. Krzyzak

17 K. Wolkowicz

8 M. Labojko

5 B. Mioc

22 K. Orlik

11 K. Andrzejczak

7 L. Zielinski

9 K. Wojtyra

Coach · Konrad Gerega

Substitutes

40 · M. Snopkowski

4 · A. Malachowski

6 · M. Wolski

10 · K. Michalski

13 · A. Gajgier

16 · P. Stefanski

18 · C. Pena

19 · D. Rumin

25 · D. Konieczny

Chrobry Głogów

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Bakowski

21 M. Kozajda

8 J. Gric

6 B. Czajka

77 M. Bartolewski

28 J. Lis

5 R. Bak

19 F. Lachendro

47 A. Klimek

10 Y. Sharabura

11 S. Strozik

Coach · Lukasz Becella

Substitutes

1 · K. Wroblewski

33 · A. Bukowski

24 · K. Grzelak

7 · K. Ibe-Torti

9 · M. Ozimek

51 · A. Rybak

17 · A. Sadiku

80 · K. Tabis

44 · F. Zabrowarny

Our number · polonia bytom winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Polonia Bytom a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Polonia Bytom v Chrobry Głogów~~1.55 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D5 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~12 v 10

~~The market · Polonia Bytom win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Polonia Bytom win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polonia Bytom win	44%	49%	−5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Chrobry Głogów win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
Polonia Bytom or draw	70%	75%	−5
Polonia Bytom clean sheet	29%	–	–
Chrobry Głogów clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.7 7.3 4.8 2.0 1 9.1 12.1 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.3 3 3.8 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Bytom down, Chrobry Głogów across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 I Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Polonia Bytom at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chrobry Głogów away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Polonia Bytom, 1.25 for Chrobry Głogów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POL 2–0 CHR · CHR 0–1 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug

POLONIA BYTOM

DDDDDW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

CHROBRY GŁOGÓW

LWDDLL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9