Pogoń Siedlce v Stal Rzeszów prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Pogoń Siedlce 3–4 Stal Rzeszów POGOŃ SIEDLCE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pogoń Siedlce win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.676

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pogoń Siedlce win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pogoń Siedlce 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Pogoń Siedlce v Stal Rzeszów
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Stal Rzeszów
34′We said Pogoń Siedlce at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–63
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Stal Rzeszów
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Pogoń Siedlce win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Stal Rzeszów win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Pogoń Siedlce win 13%)
35′Stal Rzeszów find the net on 34′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
36′We said Pogoń Siedlce at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Pogoń Siedlce 0–2 Stal Rzeszów
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Pogoń Siedlce win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
37′A goal for Stal Rzeszów on 37′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–87
41′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 1–2–97
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Pogoń Siedlce 0–3 Stal Rzeszów
43′42′: V. Krasovskiy on the scoresheet for Stal Rzeszów, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–97
45′SECOND HALF Pogoń Siedlce 0–3 Stal Rzeszów
46′HALF-TIME Pogoń Siedlce 0–3 Stal Rzeszów
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–8–90
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stal Rzeszów · On: A. Buksa · Off: S. Salamon
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Stal Rzeszów
48′Pogoń Siedlce find the net on 48′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–90
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stal Rzeszów · On: A. Naifi · Off: W. Brzek
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pogoń Siedlce · On: S. Kobusinski · Off: M. Marzec
50′We said Pogoń Siedlce at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–23–68
50′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 9–23–68
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Pogoń Siedlce 2–3 Stal Rzeszów
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Pogoń Siedlce win: 43% at kick-off, 9% now
51′A goal for Pogoń Siedlce on 50′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 9–23–68
52′C. Demianiuk scores for Pogoń Siedlce on 49′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 9–23–68
54′PENALTY MISSED · 54' Pogoń Siedlce
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Stal Rzeszów · On: M. Listkowski · Off: S. Pukala
61′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 1–5–94
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Pogoń Siedlce 2–4 Stal Rzeszów
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Pogoń Siedlce win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
62′Stal Rzeszów score on 62′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 1–5–94
63′61′: A. Buksa on the scoresheet for Stal Rzeszów, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 1–5–95
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stal Rzeszów · On: O. Madej · Off: M. Thiede
79′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 1–13–86
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pogoń Siedlce 3–4 Stal Rzeszów
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pogoń Siedlce · On: R. Makowski · Off: M. Kizyma
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pogoń Siedlce · On: N. Zielonka · Off: D. Szuprytowski
81′Pogoń Siedlce pull one back on 80′ through E. Dzieciol. 3–4. 3–4 · 1–11–88
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Pogoń Siedlce · On: S. Szczytniewski · Off: M. Rosolek
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Pogoń Siedlce · On: P. Klimek · Off: J. Barczak
95′3–4 at the end. Our 43% on Pogoń Siedlce misses, and the record keeps it. 3–4 · 0–0–100
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Pogoń Siedlce
FTFULL TIME Pogoń Siedlce 3–4 Stal Rzeszów
FTPogoń Siedlce 3–4 Stal Rzeszów · Pogoń Siedlce win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pogoń Siedlce are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pogoń Siedlce 43%, draw 27%, Stal Rzeszów 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Pogoń Siedlce v Stal RzeszówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pogoń Siedlce win43%

Draw27%

Stal Rzeszów win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion ROSRRiT

RefereeM. Kuropatwa

Line-ups

Pogoń Siedlce

Stal Rzeszów

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pogoń Siedlce

Stal Rzeszów

3Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pogoń Siedlce

Formation not confirmed

57 J. Lemanowicz

27 J. Barczak

14 D. Jakubik

4 P. Szur

2 K. Mis

31 E. Dzieciol

6 M. Kizyma

17 M. Marzec

7 D. Szuprytowski

56 C. Demianiuk

9 M. Rosolek

Coach · Adam Nocon

Substitutes

1 · J. Tomkiel

10 · R. Makowski

16 · B. Poczobut

21 · S. Kobusinski

22 · P. Klimek

26 · F. Kendzia

29 · L. Trepka

72 · S. Szczytniewski

95 · N. Zielonka

Stal Rzeszów

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Vanivskyi

21 M. Thiede

2 W. Machura

3 V. Krasovskiy

77 K. Kukulka

16 W. Brzek

66 M. Leniart

8 S. Goss

15 S. Pukala

76 S. Salamon

27 M. Rittmuller

Coach · Marek Zub

Substitutes

88 · M. Koziol

10 · A. Naifi

11 · K. Masiak

17 · O. Madej

19 · M. Musik

29 · M. Listkowski

44 · A. Buksa

45 · E. Wisniowski

Our number · pogoń siedlce winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Pogoń Siedlce a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pogoń Siedlce v Stal Rzeszów~~1.46 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~11 v 10

~~The market · Pogoń Siedlce win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pogoń Siedlce win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogoń Siedlce win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	27%	27%	0
Stal Rzeszów win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Pogoń Siedlce or draw	69%	67%	+2
Pogoń Siedlce clean sheet	31%	–	–
Stal Rzeszów clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.6 8.1 5.1 2.0 1 10.0 12.5 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogoń Siedlce down, Stal Rzeszów across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,639 I Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pogoń Siedlce at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Stal Rzeszów away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Pogoń Siedlce, 1.19 for Stal Rzeszów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~POG 1–2 STA · STA 1–1 POG · STA 2–4 POG · POG 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug

POGOŃ SIEDLCE

LWDWLL0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

STAL RZESZÓW

LWWWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	11	+5	20
3	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
4	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
5	Miedz Legnica	11	+7	17
6	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
7	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
8	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
9	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
10	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12
12	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9