Pogoń Siedlce v Puszcza Niepołomice prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:00

Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Puszcza Niepołomice PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puszcza Niepołomice win~~35%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.635

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puszcza Niepołomice win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Puszcza Niepołomice was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Pogoń Siedlce v Puszcza Niepołomice
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Pogoń Siedlce
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Pogoń Siedlce win 32%)
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Pogoń Siedlce
44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: F. Szabaciuk · Off: K. Przybylko
45′HALF-TIME Pogoń Siedlce 0–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
46′SECOND HALF Pogoń Siedlce 0–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
49′Puszcza Niepołomice score on 48′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–73
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Puszcza Niepołomice
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Puszcza Niepołomice win: 35% at kick-off, 73% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Puszcza Niepołomice win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
50′We published Puszcza Niepołomice at 35%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–21–74
51′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 5–20–74
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Puszcza Niepołomice
53′We published Puszcza Niepołomice at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Puszcza Niepołomice win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pogoń Siedlce · On: D. Szuprytowski · Off: M. Marzec
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Pogoń Siedlce
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Puszcza Niepołomice
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: A. Trubeha · Off: O. Gerstenstein
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pogoń Siedlce · On: R. Makowski · Off: B. Poczobut
65′We published Puszcza Niepołomice at 35%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′Puszcza Niepołomice find the net on 67′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Pogoń Siedlce · On: N. Zielonka · Off: S. Kobusinski
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Pogoń Siedlce 0–2 Puszcza Niepołomice
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Puszcza Niepołomice win: 35% at kick-off, 97% now
68′We published Puszcza Niepołomice at 35%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
68′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: M. Cholewiak · Off: O. Korczakowski
76′A goal for Puszcza Niepołomice on 76′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Pogoń Siedlce 0–3 Puszcza Niepołomice
77′We published Puszcza Niepołomice at 35%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′Pogoń Siedlce score on 78′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Puszcza Niepołomice
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pogoń Siedlce · On: D. Jakubik · Off: J. Barczak
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pogoń Siedlce · On: P. Klimek · Off: M. Rosolek Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Puszcza Niepołomice
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Puszcza Niepołomice
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: B. Kurzeja · Off: W. Kaminski
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: K. Iwao · Off: A. Gjoni
FTFULL TIME Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Puszcza Niepołomice
FTPogoń Siedlce 1–3 Puszcza Niepołomice · Puszcza Niepołomice win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Puszcza Niepołomice just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pogoń Siedlce 35%, draw 30%, Puszcza Niepołomice 35%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Pogoń Siedlce v Puszcza NiepołomiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Pogoń Siedlce win35%

Draw30%

Puszcza Niepołomice win35%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStadion ROSRRiT

RefereeD. Krumplewski

Line-ups

Pogoń Siedlce

Puszcza Niepołomice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pogoń Siedlce

Puszcza Niepołomice

6Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	9	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pogoń Siedlce

Formation not confirmed

57 J. Lemanowicz

27 J. Barczak

26 F. Kendzia

4 P. Szur

2 K. Mis

31 E. Dzieciol

16 B. Poczobut

21 S. Kobusinski

17 M. Marzec

56 C. Demianiuk

9 M. Rosolek

Coach · Adam Nocon

Substitutes

1 · J. Tomkiel

6 · M. Kizyma

7 · D. Szuprytowski

10 · R. Makowski

14 · D. Jakubik

22 · P. Klimek

29 · L. Trepka

72 · S. Szczytniewski

95 · N. Zielonka

Puszcza Niepołomice

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Andrzejczak

23 K. Przybylko

2 K. Kasolik

6 O. Kocar

33 M. Strajnar

8 F. Nascimento

34 A. Piekarski

77 W. Kaminski

21 O. Gerstenstein

11 O. Korczakowski

9 A. Gjoni

Coach · Tomasz Tulacz

Substitutes

13 · F. Jaworski

10 · M. Cholewiak

14 · F. Szabaciuk

53 · A. Trubeha

64 · K. Wolowiec

17 · K. Iwao

97 · W. Kowal

99 · B. Kurzeja

28 · I. Pieprzyca

Our number · puszcza niepołomice winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

35% The market37%

Us35%

~~Market~~37%

We make Puszcza Niepołomice a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pogoń Siedlce v Puszcza Niepołomice~~1.09 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~10 v 18

~~The market · Puszcza Niepołomice win~~37% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puszcza Niepołomice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogoń Siedlce win	35%	35%	0
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Puszcza Niepołomice win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	37%	50%	−13
Both teams to score	44%	56%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	64%	74%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Pogoń Siedlce or draw	65%	63%	+2
Pogoń Siedlce clean sheet	34%	–	–
Puszcza Niepołomice clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.0 11.8 6.7 2.5 1 11.8 13.7 7.2 2.7 2 6.7 7.2 3.9 3 2.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogoń Siedlce down, Puszcza Niepołomice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,633 I Liga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pogoń Siedlce at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Puszcza Niepołomice away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Pogoń Siedlce, 1.09 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PUS 3–0 POG · POG 0–0 PUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 15 Aug

POGOŃ SIEDLCE

WLWDWL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE

LLWLLL0–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
5	Warta Poznań	10	+3	15
6	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
7	Ruch Chorzów	10	0	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
11	Odra Opole	10	−1	12
12	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
13	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	9	−5	6