Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Stal Mielec prediction · I Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiDrawStal Mielec

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 53%, draw 22%, Stal Mielec 25%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Stal MielecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win53%

Draw22%

Stal Mielec win25%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Miejski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Stal Mielec

13Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 24 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pogoń grod. mazowiecki winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Stal Mielec~~2.03 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 12~~1 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win	53%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Stal Mielec win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw	75%	–	–
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki clean sheet	27%	–	–
Stal Mielec clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 4.5 3.1 1 6.9 9.6 6.2 2.7 2 7.2 9.4 6.2 2.7 3 4.9 6.3 4.2 4 2.5 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki down, Stal Mielec across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,644 I Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stal Mielec away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 1.32 for Stal Mielec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POG 1–2 STA · STA 1–2 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI

DWLWWL2–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–1

STAL MIELEC

DLLWLD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–7 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9