Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Polonia Warszawa prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–1 Polonia Warszawa POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win~~42%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.693

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
1′KICK-OFF Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Polonia Warszawa
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Polonia Warszawa
38′Little has changed for our model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 42% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–34–29
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
45′HALF-TIME Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–0 Polonia Warszawa
46′SECOND HALF Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–0 Polonia Warszawa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: M. Ruszkiewicz · Off: H. Uzoigwe
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win 34%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–44–26
56′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–44–25
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Polonia Warszawa
59′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: N. Niski · Off: J. Konstantyn
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Polonia Warszawa · On: E. Terpilowski · Off: R. Dadok
68′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' P. Janasik · Polonia Warszawa
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Polonia Warszawa · On: I. Durmus · Off: P. Janasik
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: D. Jaron · Off: R. Majewski
75′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Polonia Warszawa · On: S. Kowalczyk · Off: S. Skrabb
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: H. Turski · Off: A. Oshafi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Polonia Warszawa · On: K. Kostorz · Off: G. Barkovskiy
80′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
84′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
85′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Polonia Warszawa · On: A. Kapusta · Off: J. Paszkowski
86′Polonia Warszawa score on 85′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–92
86′We said Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–7–92
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–1 Polonia Warszawa
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Polonia Warszawa win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: J. Jedrasik · Off: J. Zbrog
93′Polonia Warszawa find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–2 Polonia Warszawa
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Polonia Warszawa
FTFULL TIME Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–1 Polonia Warszawa
FTPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–1 Polonia Warszawa · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 42%, draw 25%, Polonia Warszawa 33%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Polonia WarszawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win42%

Draw25%

Polonia Warszawa win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Miejski

RefereeP. Urban

Line-ups

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Polonia Warszawa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Polonia Warszawa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Kaminski

2 K. Glogowski

3 B. Dembek

17 J. Niewiadomski

27 J. Konstantyn

21 K. Los

14 H. Uzoigwe

23 B. Ciepiela

42 J. Zbrog

20 A. Oshafi

9 R. Majewski

Coach · Tomasz Kafarski

Substitutes

25 · M. Glacel

15 · N. Niski

99 · O. Koprowski

10 · D. Jaron

7 · J. Jedrasik

4 · M. Ruszkiewicz

11 · K. Kargulewicz

19 · H. Turski

8 · G. Gulczynski

Polonia Warszawa

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Ravas

22 P. Olszewski

16 J. Budnicki

2 M. Kuusk

97 P. Janasik

36 T. Makowski

6 D. Gnaase

94 J. Paszkowski

23 S. Skrabb

17 R. Dadok

63 G. Barkovskiy

Coach · Piotr Stokowiec

Substitutes

72 · A. Sandach

7 · D. Vega

9 · K. Kostorz

20 · D. Olafsson

21 · A. Kapusta

24 · E. Terpilowski

27 · S. Kowalczyk

99 · I. Durmus

Our number · pogoń grod. mazowiecki winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market30%

Us42%

~~Market~~30%

We make Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Polonia Warszawa~~1.56 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 17~~1 v 4

~~The market · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win~~30% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win	42%	30%	+12
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Polonia Warszawa win	33%	44%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw	67%	56%	+11
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki clean sheet	26%	–	–
Polonia Warszawa clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.0 7.0 5.0 2.3 1 8.2 11.8 7.6 3.5 2 6.6 8.8 5.9 2.7 3 3.5 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki down, Polonia Warszawa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 I Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Warszawa away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 1.35 for Polonia Warszawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POG 3–2 POL · POL 2–1 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI

DDWLWW2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0

POLONIA WARSZAWA

WLLDWW3–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9