Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań prediction · I Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PodbeskidzieDrawWarta Poznań

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Podbeskidzie 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Podbeskidzie are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Podbeskidzie 40%, draw 27%, Warta Poznań 33%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Podbeskidzie v Warta PoznańBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Podbeskidzie win40%

Draw27%

Warta Poznań win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Podbeskidzie

Warta Poznań

13Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
17	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · podbeskidzie winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Podbeskidzie a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań~~1.39 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~17 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Podbeskidzie win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Warta Poznań win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Podbeskidzie or draw	67%	–	–
Podbeskidzie clean sheet	29%	–	–
Warta Poznań clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.0 8.6 5.6 2.3 1 9.7 12.6 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.3 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Podbeskidzie down, Warta Poznań across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,648 I Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Podbeskidzie at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Warta Poznań away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Podbeskidzie, 1.24 for Warta Poznań. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAR 1–2 POD · POD 2–3 WAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 29 Aug

PODBESKIDZIE

LDDDWL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

WARTA POZNAŃ

LLWWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	+2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	+3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	−2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	−11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	−4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	−7	11