Podbeskidzie v Stal Rzeszów prediction · I Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PodbeskidzieDrawStal Rzeszów

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Podbeskidzie 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Podbeskidzie are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Podbeskidzie 43%, draw 24%, Stal Rzeszów 32%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Podbeskidzie v Stal RzeszówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Podbeskidzie win43%

Draw24%

Stal Rzeszów win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

RefereeP. Rzucidlo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Podbeskidzie

Stal Rzeszów

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
17	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · podbeskidzie winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make Podbeskidzie a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Podbeskidzie v Stal Rzeszów~~1.65 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~17 v 10

~~The market · Podbeskidzie win~~48% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Podbeskidzie win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Podbeskidzie win	43%	48%	−5
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Stal Rzeszów win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	39%	−3
Podbeskidzie or draw	68%	73%	−5
Podbeskidzie clean sheet	25%	–	–
Stal Rzeszów clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 6.3 4.7 2.2 1 7.5 11.2 7.5 3.5 2 6.5 8.8 6.1 2.9 3 3.6 4.9 3.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Podbeskidzie down, Stal Rzeszów across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,648 I Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Podbeskidzie at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stal Rzeszów away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Podbeskidzie, 1.40 for Stal Rzeszów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~STA 3–0 POD · STA 2–2 POD · POD 0–1 STA · POD 2–2 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

PODBESKIDZIE

LDDDWL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

STAL RZESZÓW

WWWWLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	+2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	+3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	−2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	−11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	−4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	−7	11