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Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce

Podbeskidzie

1–0Full time

Pogoń Siedlce

I Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce PODBESKIDZIE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Podbeskidzie win~~38%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.577

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.365

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Podbeskidzie win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Podbeskidzie was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce
5′We published Podbeskidzie at 38%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–13
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Podbeskidzie win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
10′Podbeskidzie ahead on 6′ through L. Klisiewicz. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Pogoń Siedlce
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Podbeskidzie win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Pogoń Siedlce
32′We published Podbeskidzie at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
42′⚽ GOAL · 6' Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce · L. Klisiewicz (assist T. Hirosawa)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 16' M. Marzec · Pogoń Siedlce
42′🟨 YELLOW · 21' S. Kobusinski · Pogoń Siedlce
45′HALF-TIME Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
45′⚽ GOAL · 6' Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce · L. Klisiewicz (assist T. Hirosawa)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 16' M. Marzec · Pogoń Siedlce
45′🟨 YELLOW · 21' S. Kobusinski · Pogoń Siedlce
45′SECOND HALF Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Podbeskidzie · On: A. Iwanczyk · Off: O. Sewerzynski
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Podbeskidzie
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pogoń Siedlce · On: J. Barczak · Off: L. Trepka
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pogoń Siedlce · On: C. Demianiuk · Off: S. Kobusinski
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Podbeskidzie · On: D. Takac · Off: M. Rakoczy
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Podbeskidzie · On: K. Gach · Off: T. Hirosawa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Podbeskidzie · On: Y. Shikavka · Off: L. Klisiewicz
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Podbeskidzie · On: K. Smolinski · Off: M. Urynowicz
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Pogoń Siedlce · On: R. Makowski · Off: D. Szuprytowski
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Pogoń Siedlce · On: N. Zielonka · Off: E. Dzieciol
92′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Pogoń Siedlce · On: P. Klimek · Off: M. Rosolek
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Podbeskidzie
FTFULL TIME Podbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
FTPodbeskidzie 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce · Podbeskidzie win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Podbeskidzie win38%

Draw28%

Pogoń Siedlce win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Podbeskidzie

Formation not confirmed

99 S. Branczyk

3 A. Kasperkiewicz

4 M. Biernat

6 M. Rakoczy

7 M. Sitek

11 T. Hirosawa

14 M. Urynowicz

17 J. Majsterek

26 O. Sewerzynski

90 L. Klisiewicz

98 W. Slomka

Coach · Marcin Wlodarski

Substitutes

91 · M. Matys

8 · D. Takac

9 · Y. Shikavka

10 · D. Pietraszkiewicz

61 · K. Smolinski

22 · K. Gach

24 · K. Twardosz

27 · A. Iwanczyk

47 · P. Twardosz

Pogoń Siedlce

Formation not confirmed

57 J. Lemanowicz

2 K. Mis

4 P. Szur

7 D. Szuprytowski

9 M. Rosolek

16 B. Poczobut

17 M. Marzec

21 S. Kobusinski

26 F. Kendzia

29 L. Trepka

31 E. Dzieciol

Coach · Adam Nocon

Substitutes

1 · J. Tomkiel

6 · M. Kizyma

10 · R. Makowski

14 · D. Jakubik

22 · P. Klimek

27 · J. Barczak

56 · C. Demianiuk

72 · S. Szczytniewski

95 · N. Zielonka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Podbeskidzie

Formation not confirmed

99 S. Branczyk

3 A. Kasperkiewicz

4 M. Biernat

6 M. Rakoczy

7 M. Sitek

11 T. Hirosawa

14 M. Urynowicz

17 J. Majsterek

26 O. Sewerzynski

90 L. Klisiewicz

98 W. Slomka

Coach · Marcin Wlodarski

Substitutes

91 · M. Matys

8 · D. Takac

9 · Y. Shikavka

10 · D. Pietraszkiewicz

61 · K. Smolinski

22 · K. Gach

24 · K. Twardosz

27 · A. Iwanczyk

47 · P. Twardosz

Pogoń Siedlce

Formation not confirmed

57 J. Lemanowicz

2 K. Mis

4 P. Szur

7 D. Szuprytowski

9 M. Rosolek

16 B. Poczobut

17 M. Marzec

21 S. Kobusinski

26 F. Kendzia

29 L. Trepka

31 E. Dzieciol

Coach · Adam Nocon

Substitutes

1 · J. Tomkiel

6 · M. Kizyma

10 · R. Makowski

14 · D. Jakubik

22 · P. Klimek

27 · J. Barczak

56 · C. Demianiuk

72 · S. Szczytniewski

95 · N. Zielonka

Our number · podbeskidzie winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

38% The market51%

Us38%

~~Market~~51%

We make Podbeskidzie a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · podbeskidzie win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Podbeskidzie win	38%	51%	−13
Draw	28%	26%	+3
Pogoń Siedlce win	33%	24%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	32%	−9
Podbeskidzie or draw	67%	76%	−10
Podbeskidzie clean sheet	32%	–	–
Pogoń Siedlce clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 9.7 6.0 2.4 1 10.5 13.3 7.4 2.9 2 7.0 8.0 4.7 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Podbeskidzie down, Pogoń Siedlce across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,624 I Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Podbeskidzie at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pogoń Siedlce away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Podbeskidzie, 1.17 for Pogoń Siedlce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in I Liga

PODBESKIDZIE

DDLDDD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1

POGOŃ SIEDLCE

DWLWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	+7	18
2	Nieciecza	9	+2	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	+3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	+3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	8	+2	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	0	11
13	Unia Skierniewice	9	−5	10
14	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
15	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
17	Podbeskidzie	9	−2	8
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6