Odra Opole v Pogoń Siedlce prediction · I Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Odra OpoleDrawPogoń Siedlce

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Odra Opole 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Odra Opole are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odra Opole 38%, draw 31%, Pogoń Siedlce 31%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Odra Opole v Pogoń SiedlceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Odra Opole win38%

Draw31%

Pogoń Siedlce win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueItaka Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odra Opole

Pogoń Siedlce

9Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · odra opole winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market47%

Us38%

~~Market~~47%

We make Odra Opole a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odra Opole v Pogoń Siedlce~~1.12 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~13 v 12

~~The market · Odra Opole win~~47% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Odra Opole win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odra Opole win	38%	47%	−9
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Pogoń Siedlce win	31%	25%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	35%	46%	−11
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	62%	71%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	16%	25%	−9
Odra Opole or draw	69%	75%	−6
Odra Opole clean sheet	38%	–	–
Pogoń Siedlce clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 13.1 11.6 5.8 1 13.4 13.7 6.4 2.1 2 7.7 7.4 3.6 3 2.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odra Opole down, Pogoń Siedlce across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,648 I Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odra Opole at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pogoń Siedlce away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Odra Opole, 0.97 for Pogoń Siedlce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ODR 1–0 POG · POG 0–1 ODR · POG 0–1 ODR · ODR 4–1 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

ODRA OPOLE

DDLLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

POGOŃ SIEDLCE

WDWLLL2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	+5	21
3	Nieciecza	11	+4	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	+7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	11	−5	9