Odra Opole v Miedz Legnica prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Odra Opole 1–0 Miedz Legnica MIEDZ LEGNICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Miedz Legnica win~~40%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.722

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.571

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Miedz Legnica win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Miedz Legnica 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
15′Little has changed for our model: Miedz Legnica 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
68′We said Miedz Legnica at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–0 · 18–61–21
86′76′ and it is 1–0: P. Szysz on the scoresheet for Odra Opole. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Odra Opole win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 21% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Odra Opole win 18%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 21% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Odra Opole win 18%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Odra Opole win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Odra Opole win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 21% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Odra Opole win 18%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 21% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Odra Opole win 18%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Miedz Legnica win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Odra Opole win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Odra Opole 1–0 Miedz Legnica
FTOdra Opole 1–0 Miedz Legnica · Miedz Legnica win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Odra Opole win31%

Draw29%

Miedz Legnica win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:15

VenueItaka Arena

RefereeP. Rzucidlo

Line-ups

Odra Opole

Miedz Legnica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Odra Opole

Miedz Legnica

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Odra Opole

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Mleczko

6 J. Pochciol

52 Cassio

55 M. Pingot

22 M. Spychala

8 M. Scalet

14 T. Gajda

23 B. Biedrzycki

20 P. Szysz

9 M. Feliks

77 S. Gieroba

Coach · Lukasz Tomczyk

Substitutes

30 · A. Haluch

5 · F. Franczak

10 · B. Baranski

11 · J. Perez

17 · B. Spacil

25 · K. Palacz

33 · F. Kupczyk

35 · N. Mijuskovic

73 · M. Stas

Miedz Legnica

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Sydorenko

17 I. Maliszewski

5 A. Kovacevic

3 M. Grudzinski

11 G. Norlin

80 Z. Petrovic

70 W. Hajda

10 J. Letniowski

18 A. Cordoba

9 K. Fucak

98 K. Antonik

Coach · Dawid Kroczek

Substitutes

24 · H. Siniecki

8 · J. Serafin

21 · D. Stanclik

30 · M. Jovicic

52 · O. Olewinski

78 · M. Mazur

99 · K. Noiszewski

95 · M. Mansfeld

7 · M. Bochnak

Our number · miedz legnica winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make Miedz Legnica a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odra Opole win	31%	38%	−7
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Miedz Legnica win	40%	34%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	53%	−11
Both teams to score	47%	57%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−12
Odra Opole or draw	60%	66%	−6
Odra Opole clean sheet	29%	–	–
Miedz Legnica clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.4 11.6 7.7 3.3 1 9.8 13.5 8.1 3.5 2 5.6 6.9 4.4 3 2.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odra Opole down, Miedz Legnica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,628 I Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odra Opole at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Miedz Legnica away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Odra Opole, 1.26 for Miedz Legnica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MIE 2–1 ODR · ODR 2–1 MIE · MIE 2–1 ODR · ODR 0–2 MIE

Form · last six in I Liga

ODRA OPOLE

WDDDLL3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

MIEDZ LEGNICA

WWWDLL3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
5	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
6	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
13	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6