Nieciecza v Puszcza Niepołomice prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Nieciecza 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice NIECIECZA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nieciecza win~~48%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.399

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.353

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nieciecza win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nieciecza was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Nieciecza v Puszcza Niepołomice
30′Nieciecza find the net on 30′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′We published Nieciecza at 48%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Nieciecza 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Nieciecza
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 42% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' K. Kasolik · Puszcza Niepołomice
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Puszcza Niepołomice
45′Nieciecza find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′We published Nieciecza at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Nieciecza 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Nieciecza 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
46′SECOND HALF Nieciecza 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: A. Trubeha · Off: W. Kaminski
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: M. Cholewiak · Off: O. Korczakowski
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
56′A goal for Puszcza Niepołomice on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–44–22
56′We said Nieciecza at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Nieciecza 1–1 Puszcza Niepołomice
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 34% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Nieciecza win 78%)
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Puszcza Niepołomice
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Nieciecza win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 45%)
62′We published Nieciecza at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′We published Nieciecza at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Nieciecza · On: D. Biniek · Off: W. Jakubik
74′D. Hilbrycht scores for Nieciecza on 73′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: K. Iwao · Off: O. Gerstenstein
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Nieciecza 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice · D. Hilbrycht
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Nieciecza win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
75′We published Nieciecza at 48%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: I. Pieprzyca · Off: A. Piekarski
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Puszcza Niepołomice · On: K. Wolowiec · Off: M. Strajnar
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Nieciecza · On: R. Boboc · Off: I. Durdov
82′We published Nieciecza at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Nieciecza · On: A. Zarowny · Off: D. Hilbrycht
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Nieciecza · On: M. Synos · Off: M. Kozik
97′PENALTY MISSED · 90+7' Nieciecza
FTFULL TIME Nieciecza 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice
FTNieciecza 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice · Nieciecza win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nieciecza are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nieciecza 48%, draw 25%, Puszcza Niepołomice 27%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Nieciecza v Puszcza NiepołomiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Nieciecza win48%

Draw25%

Puszcza Niepołomice win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTermalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

RefereeP. Swierczek

Line-ups

Nieciecza

Puszcza Niepołomice

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nieciecza

Puszcza Niepołomice

9Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 15 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nieciecza

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Chovan

20 M. Jaroszewski

5 L. Masoero

77 A. Putivtsev

16 M. Kozik

21 D. Hilbrycht

8 R. Kurzawa

13 K. Kubica

15 S. Dabrowski

26 W. Jakubik

19 I. Durdov

Coach · Marcin Brosz

Substitutes

76 · E. Topor

4 · A. Zarowny

6 · M. Drag

11 · O. Slawinski

17 · D. Biniek

25 · K. Zapolnik

27 · R. Boboc

44 · M. Synos

66 · P. Olejnik

Puszcza Niepołomice

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Andrzejczak

14 F. Szabaciuk

2 K. Kasolik

6 O. Kocar

33 M. Strajnar

8 F. Nascimento

34 A. Piekarski

77 W. Kaminski

21 O. Gerstenstein

11 O. Korczakowski

9 A. Gjoni

Coach · Tomasz Tulacz

Substitutes

10 · M. Cholewiak

17 · K. Iwao

13 · F. Jaworski

97 · W. Kowal

99 · B. Kurzeja

28 · I. Pieprzyca

5 · K. Stepien

53 · A. Trubeha

64 · K. Wolowiec

Our number · nieciecza winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

48% The market51%

Us48%

~~Market~~51%

We make Nieciecza a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nieciecza v Puszcza Niepołomice~~1.69 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 9~~8 v 18

~~The market · Nieciecza win~~51% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nieciecza win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nieciecza win	48%	51%	−3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Puszcza Niepołomice win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Nieciecza or draw	73%	76%	−3
Nieciecza clean sheet	30%	–	–
Puszcza Niepołomice clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.1 6.5 4.1 1 9.1 11.4 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.5 5.3 3.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nieciecza down, Puszcza Niepołomice across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 I Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nieciecza at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Puszcza Niepołomice away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Nieciecza, 1.20 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NIE 2–2 PUS · NIE 2–1 PUS · PUS 0–0 NIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug

NIECIECZA

LDWWWD1–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE

LWLLLW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	11	+5	20
3	Lechia Gdansk	11	+4	19
4	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
5	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
6	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
7	Miedz Legnica	11	+7	17
8	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
9	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	−2	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9