Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Miedz Legnica 3–0 Stal Mielec MIEDZ LEGNICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Miedz Legnica win~~53%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Miedz Legnica win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Miedz Legnica 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
1′KICK-OFF Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec
12′We said Miedz Legnica at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal Mielec
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Miedz Legnica win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
13′A goal for Miedz Legnica on 13′. 0–0 · 51–24–25
13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Miedz Legnica
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Miedz Legnica win: 53% at kick-off, 51% now
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Stal Mielec
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–8
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal Mielec
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Miedz Legnica win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
34′A goal for Miedz Legnica on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Stal Mielec
38′W. Hajda scores for Miedz Legnica on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
38′We said Miedz Legnica at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Stal Mielec
45′SECOND HALF Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal Mielec
47′HALF-TIME Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal Mielec
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stal Mielec · On: T. Gmur · Off: E. Ziobron
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Miedz Legnica 2–0 Stal Mielec
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Miedz Legnica win: 53% at kick-off, 94% now
49′We said Miedz Legnica at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′Miedz Legnica score on 49′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
51′We said Miedz Legnica at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Stal Mielec
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Miedz Legnica · On: G. Norlin · Off: K. Antonik
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stal Mielec · On: S. Oure · Off: K. Cybulski
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stal Mielec · On: B. Kukulowicz · Off: P. Tupaj
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Miedz Legnica · On: M. Mazur · Off: K. Noiszewski
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Miedz Legnica · On: D. Stanclik · Off: M. Bochnak
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stal Mielec · On: K. Getinger · Off: H. Matynia
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Miedz Legnica · On: J. Letniowski · Off: K. Fucak
81′We said Miedz Legnica at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Miedz Legnica 3–0 Stal Mielec
83′Miedz Legnica find the net on 82′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Stal Mielec · On: M. Domanski · Off: M. Cebula
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Stal Mielec
96′3–0 at the end. Our 53% on Miedz Legnica comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Miedz Legnica 3–0 Stal Mielec
FTMiedz Legnica 3–0 Stal Mielec · Miedz Legnica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Miedz Legnica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Miedz Legnica 53%, draw 22%, Stal Mielec 25%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Miedz Legnica v Stal MielecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Miedz Legnica win53%

Draw22%

Stal Mielec win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeA. Rozycki

Line-ups

Miedz Legnica

Stal Mielec

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Miedz Legnica

Stal Mielec

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Miedz Legnica

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Sydorenko

52 O. Olewinski

5 A. Kovacevic

99 K. Noiszewski

3 M. Grudzinski

18 A. Cordoba

80 Z. Petrovic

70 W. Hajda

98 K. Antonik

9 K. Fucak

7 M. Bochnak

Coach · Dawid Kroczek

Substitutes

1 · I. Lucic

8 · J. Serafin

10 · J. Letniowski

11 · G. Norlin

17 · I. Maliszewski

21 · D. Stanclik

30 · M. Jovicic

78 · M. Mazur

95 · M. Mansfeld

Stal Mielec

Formation not confirmed

99 M. Gostomski

29 P. Tupaj

94 B. Kwiecien

44 I. Puerto

5 H. Matynia

32 F. Gerbowski

18 P. Wlazlo

90 P. Kruszelnicki

7 M. Cebula

78 K. Cybulski

20 E. Ziobron

Coach · Damian Skiba

Substitutes

41 · P. Chrapusta

2 · B. Kukulowicz

8 · N. Niedzwiedz

10 · M. Domanski

14 · K. Koscielny

19 · T. Gmur

23 · K. Getinger

47 · S. Oure

88 · P. Prajsnar

Our number · miedz legnica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

53% The market55%

Us53%

~~Market~~55%

We make Miedz Legnica a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec~~2.01 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~8 v 14

~~The market · Miedz Legnica win~~55% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Miedz Legnica win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Miedz Legnica win	53%	55%	−2
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Stal Mielec win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	62%	+2
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Miedz Legnica or draw	75%	78%	−3
Miedz Legnica clean sheet	27%	–	–
Stal Mielec clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.1 4.5 3.1 1 7.0 9.8 6.2 2.7 2 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.7 3 4.9 6.3 4.1 4 2.5 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Miedz Legnica down, Stal Mielec across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,636 I Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Miedz Legnica at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Stal Mielec away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Miedz Legnica, 1.31 for Stal Mielec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MIE 1–0 STA · STA 1–2 MIE · STA 1–1 MIE · MIE 0–2 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 23 Aug

MIEDZ LEGNICA

WWDLLL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

STAL MIELEC

LLDLLW0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–7 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	+2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	+4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	−6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	−1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	−8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9