ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Ruch Chorzów ŁKS ŁÓDŹ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ŁKS Łódź win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.769

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ŁKS Łódź win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów
2′Much as we predicted: ŁKS Łódź was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
4′Much as we predicted: ŁKS Łódź was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' ŁKS Łódź
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Ruch Chorzów
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' ŁKS Łódź
45′HALF-TIME ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Ruch Chorzów
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Nowakowski · Off: I. Strzalek
46′SECOND HALF ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Ruch Chorzów
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' ŁKS Łódź
59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' ŁKS Łódź · On: M. Kaput · Off: M. Wysokinski
59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' ŁKS Łódź · On: L. Szczygiel · Off: D. Sokol
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Ruch Chorzów
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ŁKS Łódź · On: A. Siwek · Off: K. Terlecki
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Hinokio · Off: S. Karasinski
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Ruch Chorzów
77′🟨 YELLOW · 43' K. Falowski · ŁKS Łódź
77′🟨 YELLOW · 46' M. Chrapek · Ruch Chorzów
77′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. Arasa · ŁKS Łódź
77′SUBSTITUTION · 46' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Nowakowski · Off: I. Strzalek
77′🟨 YELLOW · 47' B. Farbiszewski · ŁKS Łódź
77′SUBSTITUTION · 55' ŁKS Łódź · On: M. Kaput · Off: M. Wysokinski
77′SUBSTITUTION · 55' ŁKS Łódź · On: L. Szczygiel · Off: D. Sokol
77′⚽ GOAL · 62' ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Ruch Chorzów · B. Farbiszewski
77′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ŁKS Łódź · On: A. Siwek · Off: K. Terlecki
77′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Hinokio · Off: S. Karasinski
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Ruch Chorzów
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ruch Chorzów · On: M. Pawlowski · Off: D. Szczepan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ruch Chorzów · On: S. Nagamatsu · Off: M. Chrapek
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Ruch Chorzów
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ruch Chorzów · On: K. Rostek · Off: P. Szwedzik
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Ruch Chorzów
FTFULL TIME ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Ruch Chorzów
FTŁKS Łódź 0–2 Ruch Chorzów · ŁKS Łódź win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

ŁKS Łódź win45%

Draw26%

Ruch Chorzów win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

RefereeG. Kawalko

Line-ups

ŁKS Łódź

Ruch Chorzów

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ŁKS Łódź

Ruch Chorzów

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

ŁKS Łódź

Formation not confirmed

77 D. Weglarz

3 K. Falowski

22 A. Craciun

4 B. Farbiszewski

7 D. Sokol

88 K. Terlecki

20 M. Wysokinski

10 I. Strzalek

38 S. Karasinski

9 A. Arasa

13 K. Podlinski

Coach · Grzegorz Szoka

Substitutes

1 · L. Bomba

5 · L. Wiech

6 · S. Rudol

8 · K. Hinokio

11 · M. Blachewicz

18 · A. Siwek

19 · K. Nowakowski

28 · M. Kaput

33 · L. Szczygiel

Ruch Chorzów

Formation not confirmed

44 J. Wrabel

15 M. Konczkowski

28 N. Lesniak-Paduch

17 A. Lukic

3 A. del Moral

20 S. Szymanski

7 J. Kristan

21 P. Szwedzik

6 M. Chrapek

10 T. Sutherland

95 D. Szczepan

Coach · Waldemar Fornalik

Substitutes

82 · J. Bielecki

5 · M. Rosol

9 · M. Pawlowski

14 · F. Wojcik

18 · S. Nagamatsu

24 · A. Komor

25 · D. Ventura

88 · K. Rostek

Our number · łks łódź winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make ŁKS Łódź a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · łks łódź win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ŁKS Łódź win	45%	38%	+7
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Ruch Chorzów win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
ŁKS Łódź or draw	71%	66%	+5
ŁKS Łódź clean sheet	30%	–	–
Ruch Chorzów clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.0 7.2 4.6 1 9.3 12.2 7.1 2.9 2 7.6 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 4.0 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ŁKS Łódź down, Ruch Chorzów across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,628 I Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ŁKS Łódź at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ruch Chorzów away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for ŁKS Łódź, 1.21 for Ruch Chorzów. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LKS 2–2 RUC · RUC 2–1 LKS · RUC 1–3 LKS · LKS 0–1 RUC

Form · last six in I Liga

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ

WWDDWL2–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

RUCH CHORZÓW

WWLWDD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	+11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	+4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
4	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
5	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
6	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	−1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
13	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	10	−5	11
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6