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ŁKS Łódź v Podbeskidzie

ŁKS Łódź
1–0Full time
Podbeskidzie

I Liga · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Podbeskidzie ŁKS ŁÓDŹ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ŁKS Łódź win53%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.334
The market’s Brier score0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ŁKS Łódź win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: ŁKS Łódź was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ŁKS Łódź v Podbeskidzie
  4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' ŁKS Łódź
  5. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Podbeskidzie
  6. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' ŁKS Łódź
  7. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' ŁKS Łódź win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  8. 45′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–37–21
  9. 45′HALF-TIME ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Podbeskidzie
  10. 46′SECOND HALF ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Podbeskidzie
  11. 50′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
  12. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was ŁKS Łódź win 37%)
  13. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Podbeskidzie · On: B. Martosz · Off: M. Sitek
  14. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–43–20
  15. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Podbeskidzie
  16. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' ŁKS Łódź · On: D. Sokol · Off: S. Karasinski
  17. 60′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
  18. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' ŁKS Łódź win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Podbeskidzie · On: K. Gach · Off: O. Sewerzynski
  20. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Podbeskidzie · On: A. Iwanczyk · Off: T. Hirosawa
  21. 67′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  22. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Nowakowski · Off: M. Wysokinski
  23. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Podlinski · Off: L. Szczygiel
  24. 74′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–64–13
  25. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' ŁKS Łódź
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' ŁKS Łódź win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  27. 78′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–71–11
  28. 82′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–8
  29. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' ŁKS Łódź win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  30. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Podbeskidzie · On: Y. Shikavka · Off: L. Klisiewicz
  31. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Podbeskidzie · On: K. Smolinski · Off: M. Rakoczy
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' ŁKS Łódź · On: K. Terlecki · Off: M. Kaput
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' ŁKS Łódź · On: I. Strzalek · Off: J. Keiblinger
  34. 86′We said ŁKS Łódź at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  35. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Podbeskidzie
  36. 91′ŁKS Łódź score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  37. 91′We published ŁKS Łódź at 53%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  38. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Podbeskidzie
  39. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' ŁKS Łódź win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
  40. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' ŁKS Łódź win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  41. FTFULL TIME ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Podbeskidzie
  42. FTŁKS Łódź 1–0 Podbeskidzie · ŁKS Łódź win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ŁKS Łódź are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ŁKS Łódź 53%, draw 24%, Podbeskidzie 23%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on ŁKS Łódź v PodbeskidzieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ŁKS Łódź win53%
Draw24%
Podbeskidzie win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeF. Kaliszewski

Line-ups

ŁKS Łódź

Podbeskidzie

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ŁKS Łódź

Podbeskidzie

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8ŁKS Łódź10+215
15Podbeskidzie10−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ŁKS Łódź

Formation not confirmed

77 D. Weglarz

6 S. Rudol

22 A. Craciun

4 B. Farbiszewski

37 J. Keiblinger

20 M. Wysokinski

28 M. Kaput

8 K. Hinokio

38 S. Karasinski

33 L. Szczygiel

9 A. Arasa

Coach · Grzegorz Szoka

Substitutes

1 · L. Bomba

3 · K. Falowski

5 · L. Wiech

7 · D. Sokol

10 · I. Strzalek

13 · K. Podlinski

17 · K. Prusinski

19 · K. Nowakowski

88 · K. Terlecki

Podbeskidzie

Formation not confirmed

99 S. Branczyk

17 J. Majsterek

4 M. Biernat

3 A. Kasperkiewicz

7 M. Sitek

14 M. Urynowicz

26 O. Sewerzynski

98 W. Slomka

11 T. Hirosawa

90 L. Klisiewicz

6 M. Rakoczy

Coach · Marcin Wlodarski

Substitutes

91 · M. Matys

2 · K. Sochan

8 · D. Takac

9 · Y. Shikavka

10 · D. Pietraszkiewicz

16 · K. Smolinski

22 · K. Gach

27 · A. Iwanczyk

84 · B. Martosz

Our number · łks łódź winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
53% The market52%
Us53%
Market52%

We make ŁKS Łódź a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ŁKS Łódź v Podbeskidzie1.77 – 1.08
Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 AugW2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1
Table places · points 15 v 118 v 15
The market · ŁKS Łódź win52% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 13:19
Our probability · ŁKS Łódź win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ŁKS Łódź win53%52%+1
Draw24%25%−1
Podbeskidzie win23%24%−1
Over 2.5 goals54%56%−2
Both teams to score54%58%−4
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals32%34%−2
ŁKS Łódź or draw77%76%+1
ŁKS Łódź clean sheet34%––
Podbeskidzie clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 6.4 6.1 3.5 1 10.0 11.3 5.9 2.2 2 9.0 9.5 5.1 3 5.3 5.6 3.0 4 2.4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ŁKS Łódź down, Podbeskidzie across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsLKS 2–1 POD · POD 1–1 LKS · POD 1–1 LKS · LKS 1–2 POD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ

WDDWLL4–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

PODBESKIDZIE

DLDDDW1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki11+1021
2Polonia Warszawa11+520
3Warta Poznań11+418
4Ruch Chorzów11+318
5Miedz Legnica11+717
6Nieciecza10+217
7Lechia Gdansk10+316
8ŁKS Łódź10+215
9Polonia Bytom11−115
10Stal Rzeszów10−614
11Pogoń Siedlce10−112
12Chrobry Głogów11−212
13Odra Opole11−412
14Stal Mielec11−1112
15Podbeskidzie10−111
16Arka Gdynia10−111
17Unia Skierniewice11−611
18Puszcza Niepołomice10−39

The competition's standings before kick-off.