Lechia Gdansk v Arka Gdynia prediction · I Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:01

Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia LECHIA GDANSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lechia Gdansk win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.511

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lechia Gdansk win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lechia Gdansk was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Lechia Gdansk v Arka Gdynia
35′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–11
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Arka Gdynia
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Lechia Gdansk win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
37′Lechia Gdansk find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
41′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Lechia Gdansk win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′SECOND HALF Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Arka Gdynia
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arka Gdynia · On: D. Kocyla · Off: N. Dziegielewski
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Arka Gdynia
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Lechia Gdansk win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Lechia Gdansk win 32%)
48′A goal for Arka Gdynia on 47′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–39–29
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Arka Gdynia
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 72–21–8
50′HALF-TIME Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Arka Gdynia
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Lechia Gdansk win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Lechia Gdansk win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
52′Lechia Gdansk score on 51′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–7
59′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arka Gdynia · On: F. Walus · Off: B. Pawlowski
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arka Gdynia · On: K. Lipkowski · Off: K. Gruszkowski
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Arka Gdynia
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Lechia Gdansk win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
71′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–17–3
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lechia Gdansk · On: H. Ivanov · Off: T. Wojtowicz
77′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
82′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Lechia Gdansk win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
89′We published Lechia Gdansk at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lechia Gdansk · On: B. Szczepankiewicz · Off: T. Neugebauer
93′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lechia Gdansk · On: N. Hovhannisyan · Off: J. Mena Corrected
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Lechia Gdansk
98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Lechia Gdansk · On: N. Hovhannisyan · Off: A. Shakh Corrected
98′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lechia Gdansk · On: N. Hovhannisyan · Off: A. Shakh
99′🟨 YELLOW · 90' S. Kopasek · Lechia Gdansk
100′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Arka Gdynia · On: E. Rama · Off: M. Ambrosiewicz
103′2–1 after extra time. Our 40% on Lechia Gdansk is graded on the score after ninety minutes. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia
FTLechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia · Lechia Gdansk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lechia Gdansk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lechia Gdansk 40%, draw 25%, Arka Gdynia 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Lechia Gdansk v Arka GdyniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lechia Gdansk win40%

Draw25%

Arka Gdynia win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePolsat Plus Arena

RefereeB. Frankowski

Line-ups

Lechia Gdansk

Arka Gdynia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lechia Gdansk

Arka Gdynia

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · I Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
15	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lechia Gdansk

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Holewinski

19 S. Kopasek

4 K. Lopata

21 D. Beskorovaynyi

3 D. Malov

30 J. Mena

33 T. Wojtowicz

99 T. Neugebauer

7 K. Dodaj

97 V. Blanuta

13 A. Shakh

Coach · Vladyslav Lupashko

Substitutes

22 · S. Weirauch

6 · H. Ivanov

8 · J. Adkonis

9 · M. Glogowski

17 · I. Bambecki

20 · N. Hovhannisyan

40 · W. Madej

76 · I. Mavraj

88 · B. Szczepankiewicz

Arka Gdynia

Formation not confirmed

99 D. Arndt

20 K. Gruszkowski

44 J. Dominguez

4 M. Komenda

94 D. Gojny

8 A. Sidibe

28 M. Ambrosiewicz

19 B. Pawlowski

16 K. Solecki

9 V. Gutkovskis

17 N. Dziegielewski

Coach · Tomasz Grzegorczyk

Substitutes

33 · J. Grobelny

6 · K. Lipkowski

3 · S. Szota

14 · D. Kun

23 · S. Lewkot

77 · F. Walus

11 · D. Kocyla

71 · J. Kowalski

98 · E. Rama

Our number · lechia gdansk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Lechia Gdansk a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lechia Gdansk v Arka Gdynia~~1.50 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~9 v 15

~~The market · Lechia Gdansk win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lechia Gdansk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lechia Gdansk win	40%	42%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Arka Gdynia win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Lechia Gdansk or draw	65%	68%	−3
Lechia Gdansk clean sheet	25%	–	–
Arka Gdynia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 7.5 5.4 2.5 1 8.1 11.8 7.9 3.7 2 6.3 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lechia Gdansk down, Arka Gdynia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,639 I Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Arka Gdynia away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Lechia Gdansk, 1.39 for Arka Gdynia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARK 2–2 LEC · LEC 1–0 ARK · LEC 2–1 ARK · ARK 1–0 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 21 Aug

LECHIA GDANSK

WWLWWW1–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 7–1 · 2–1

ARKA GDYNIA

LDDLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	+10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	11	+5	20
3	Warta Poznań	11	+4	18
4	Ruch Chorzów	11	+3	18
5	ŁKS Łódź	11	+3	18
6	Miedz Legnica	11	+7	17
7	Nieciecza	10	+2	17
8	Stal Rzeszów	11	−5	17
9	Lechia Gdansk	10	+3	16
10	Polonia Bytom	11	−1	15
11	Chrobry Głogów	11	−2	12
12	Pogoń Siedlce	11	−2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	−4	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	−11	12
15	Arka Gdynia	10	−1	11
16	Podbeskidzie	11	−2	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	−6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	−3	9