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Chrobry Głogów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Chrobry Głogów

0–4Full time

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Chrobrego

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chrobry Głogów 0–4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki CHROBRY GŁOGÓW WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chrobry Głogów win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chrobry Głogów win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chrobry Głogów 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Chrobry Głogów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Chrobry Głogów 0–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · A. Oshafi (assist H. Uzoigwe)
20′Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ahead on 14′ through A. Oshafi. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Chrobry Głogów win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Chrobry Głogów win 15%)
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Chrobry Głogów 0–2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
40′B. Ciepiela scores for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on 36′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Chrobry Głogów win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Chrobry Głogów 0–3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · K. Los (assist J. Zbrog)
45′HALF-TIME Chrobry Głogów 0–3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Bukowski · Off: R. Bak
46′SECOND HALF Chrobry Głogów 0–3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Bukowski · Off: R. Bak
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Chrobry Głogów 1–3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: D. Jaron · Off: A. Oshafi
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: H. Turski · Off: R. Majewski
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Sadiku · Off: A. Klimek
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Chrobry Głogów 0–4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Chrobry Głogów · On: M. Ozimek · Off: K. Ibe-Torti
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: M. Ruszkiewicz · Off: B. Ciepiela
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: N. Niski · Off: J. Zbrog
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · On: O. Koprowski · Off: J. Konstantyn
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chrobry Głogów · On: A. Rybak · Off: K. Grzelak
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Chrobry Głogów 0–5 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FTFULL TIME Chrobry Głogów 0–4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FTChrobry Głogów 0–4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · Chrobry Głogów win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chrobry Głogów win40%

Draw28%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stadion Chrobrego

Referee · P. Horozaniecki

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Chrobry Głogów

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Bakowski

80 K. Tabis

8 J. Gric

21 M. Kozajda

77 M. Bartolewski

5 R. Bak

24 K. Grzelak

10 Y. Sharabura

47 A. Klimek

7 K. Ibe-Torti

11 S. Strozik

Coach · Lukasz Becella

Substitutes

1 · K. Wroblewski

33 · A. Bukowski

6 · B. Czajka

19 · F. Lachendro

9 · M. Ozimek

51 · A. Rybak

17 · A. Sadiku

18 · T. Simkov

44 · F. Zabrowarny

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Kaminski

2 K. Glogowski

3 B. Dembek

17 J. Niewiadomski

42 J. Zbrog

14 H. Uzoigwe

23 B. Ciepiela

21 K. Los

27 J. Konstantyn

9 R. Majewski

20 A. Oshafi

Coach · Tomasz Kafarski

Substitutes

25 · M. Glacel

15 · N. Niski

99 · O. Koprowski

6 · J. Krupa

8 · G. Gulczynski

4 · M. Ruszkiewicz

11 · K. Kargulewicz

19 · H. Turski

10 · D. Jaron

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chrobry Głogów

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Bakowski

80 K. Tabis

8 J. Gric

21 M. Kozajda

77 M. Bartolewski

5 R. Bak

24 K. Grzelak

10 Y. Sharabura

47 A. Klimek

7 K. Ibe-Torti

11 S. Strozik

Coach · Lukasz Becella

Substitutes

1 · K. Wroblewski

33 · A. Bukowski

6 · B. Czajka

19 · F. Lachendro

9 · M. Ozimek

51 · A. Rybak

17 · A. Sadiku

18 · T. Simkov

44 · F. Zabrowarny

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Kaminski

2 K. Glogowski

3 B. Dembek

17 J. Niewiadomski

42 J. Zbrog

14 H. Uzoigwe

23 B. Ciepiela

21 K. Los

27 J. Konstantyn

9 R. Majewski

20 A. Oshafi

Coach · Tomasz Kafarski

Substitutes

25 · M. Glacel

15 · N. Niski

99 · O. Koprowski

6 · J. Krupa

8 · G. Gulczynski

4 · M. Ruszkiewicz

11 · K. Kargulewicz

19 · H. Turski

10 · D. Jaron

Our number · chrobry głogów winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Chrobry Głogów a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chrobry Głogów win	40%	42%	−2
Draw	28%	27%	0
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win	33%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Chrobry Głogów or draw	67%	70%	−2
Chrobry Głogów clean sheet	30%	–	–
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.4 8.7 5.6 2.3 1 9.9 13.0 7.5 3.0 2 7.1 8.4 5.1 2.1 3 3.3 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chrobry Głogów down, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,625 I Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chrobry Głogów at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Chrobry Głogów, 1.21 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHR 3–0 POG · POG 1–1 CHR

Form · last six in I Liga

CHROBRY GŁOGÓW

DLWDDL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI

DDDWLW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	+7	18
2	Nieciecza	9	+2	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	+3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	+3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	0	11
13	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	9	−5	10
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6