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Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa

Arka Gdynia

1–2Full time

Polonia Warszawa

I Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Arka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa ARKA GDYNIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arka Gdynia win~~49%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arka Gdynia win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arka Gdynia was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arka Gdynia 1–0 Polonia Warszawa
16′⚽ GOAL · 17' Arka Gdynia 1–0 Polonia Warszawa
18′17′ and it is 1–0: V. Gutkovskis on the scoresheet for Arka Gdynia. 1–0 · 75–17–8
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Arka Gdynia win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
40′Polonia Warszawa ahead on 38′ through R. Dadok. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–36–24
40′⚽ GOAL · 38' Arka Gdynia 1–1 Polonia Warszawa · R. Dadok (assist P. Olszewski)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Arka Gdynia win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Arka Gdynia 1–1 Polonia Warszawa
47′SECOND HALF Arka Gdynia 1–1 Polonia Warszawa
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arka Gdynia · On: F. Walus · Off: A. Sidibe
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Arka Gdynia · On: D. Kocyla · Off: N. Dziegielewski
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Arka Gdynia · On: S. Lewkot · Off: D. Kun
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Polonia Warszawa · On: D. Vega · Off: R. Dadok
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Polonia Warszawa · On: S. Kowalczyk · Off: T. Makowski
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Polonia Warszawa · On: K. Kostorz · Off: G. Barkovskiy
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Polonia Warszawa · On: A. Kapusta · Off: J. Paszkowski
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Arka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa · R. Dadok
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Arka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arka Gdynia · On: B. Pawlowski · Off: V. Gutkovskis
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arka Gdynia · On: J. Kowalski · Off: K. Solecki
FTFULL TIME Arka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa
FTArka Gdynia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa · Arka Gdynia win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arka Gdynia win49%

Draw26%

Polonia Warszawa win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Referee · M. Piszczelok

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arka Gdynia

Formation not confirmed

99 D. Arndt

20 K. Gruszkowski

3 S. Szota

4 M. Komenda

94 D. Gojny

28 M. Ambrosiewicz

8 A. Sidibe

14 D. Kun

16 K. Solecki

9 V. Gutkovskis

17 N. Dziegielewski

Coach · Tomasz Grzegorczyk

Substitutes

33 · J. Grobelny

44 · J. Dominguez

6 · K. Lipkowski

23 · S. Lewkot

11 · D. Kocyla

71 · J. Kowalski

19 · B. Pawlowski

77 · F. Walus

98 · E. Rama

Polonia Warszawa

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Ravas

22 P. Olszewski

97 P. Janasik

2 M. Kuusk

20 D. Olafsson

6 D. Gnaase

36 T. Makowski

94 J. Paszkowski

23 S. Skrabb

17 R. Dadok

63 G. Barkovskiy

Coach · Piotr Stokowiec

Substitutes

71 · M. Jelen

7 · D. Vega

8 · O. Wojciechowski

9 · K. Kostorz

14 · M. Gorzedowski

21 · A. Kapusta

24 · E. Terpilowski

26 · K. Tabara

27 · S. Kowalczyk

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arka Gdynia

Formation not confirmed

99 D. Arndt

20 K. Gruszkowski

3 S. Szota

4 M. Komenda

94 D. Gojny

28 M. Ambrosiewicz

8 A. Sidibe

14 D. Kun

16 K. Solecki

9 V. Gutkovskis

17 N. Dziegielewski

Coach · Tomasz Grzegorczyk

Substitutes

33 · J. Grobelny

44 · J. Dominguez

6 · K. Lipkowski

23 · S. Lewkot

11 · D. Kocyla

71 · J. Kowalski

19 · B. Pawlowski

77 · F. Walus

98 · E. Rama

Polonia Warszawa

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Ravas

22 P. Olszewski

97 P. Janasik

2 M. Kuusk

20 D. Olafsson

6 D. Gnaase

36 T. Makowski

94 J. Paszkowski

23 S. Skrabb

17 R. Dadok

63 G. Barkovskiy

Coach · Piotr Stokowiec

Substitutes

71 · M. Jelen

7 · D. Vega

8 · O. Wojciechowski

9 · K. Kostorz

14 · M. Gorzedowski

21 · A. Kapusta

24 · E. Terpilowski

26 · K. Tabara

27 · S. Kowalczyk

Our number · arka gdynia winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

49% The market41%

Us49%

~~Market~~41%

We make Arka Gdynia a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arka Gdynia win	49%	41%	+8
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Polonia Warszawa win	25%	32%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Arka Gdynia or draw	75%	68%	+6
Arka Gdynia clean sheet	34%	–	–
Polonia Warszawa clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.2 6.7 4.0 1 10.1 12.0 6.4 2.4 2 8.6 9.3 5.1 3 4.7 5.1 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arka Gdynia down, Polonia Warszawa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,625 I Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

I Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arka Gdynia at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Warszawa away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Arka Gdynia, 1.10 for Polonia Warszawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARK 0–0 POL · POL 0–3 ARK · POL 0–3 ARK · ARK 2–3 POL

Form · last six in I Liga

ARKA GDYNIA

WLDDLL3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

POLONIA WARSZAWA

LWLLDW0–1 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	+7	18
2	Nieciecza	9	+2	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	+4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	+4	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	+5	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	+3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	−5	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	+2	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	+3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	+1	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	−2	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	0	11
13	Podbeskidzie	10	−1	11
14	Unia Skierniewice	9	−5	10
15	Odra Opole	9	−2	9
16	Polonia Bytom	9	−3	9
17	Stal Mielec	9	−9	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	−4	6