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Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza

Arka Gdynia
3–1Full time
Nieciecza

I Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24
Arka Gdynia 3–1 Nieciecza ARKA GDYNIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Arka Gdynia win43%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.494
The market’s Brier score0.498

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arka Gdynia win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Arka Gdynia was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza
  4. 11′We published Arka Gdynia at 43%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–18–13
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Arka Gdynia 1–0 Nieciecza
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Arka Gdynia win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 12′Arka Gdynia score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–18–13
  8. 13′11′: D. Kocyla on the scoresheet for Arka Gdynia, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–13
  9. 16′We published Arka Gdynia at 43%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
  10. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arka Gdynia 2–0 Nieciecza
  11. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Arka Gdynia win: 43% at kick-off, 87% now
  12. 17′Arka Gdynia find the net on 17′. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–4
  13. 18′Arka Gdynia ahead on 16′ through V. Gutkovskis. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–4
  14. 30′We published Arka Gdynia at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
  15. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Nieciecza
  16. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Arka Gdynia
  17. 38′We published Arka Gdynia at 43%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
  18. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Arka Gdynia 3–0 Nieciecza
  19. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Arka Gdynia win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
  20. 39′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 98–2–0
  21. 40′A goal for Arka Gdynia on 40′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
  22. 45′SECOND HALF Arka Gdynia 3–0 Nieciecza
  23. 47′HALF-TIME Arka Gdynia 3–0 Nieciecza
  24. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nieciecza · On: M. Synos · Off: L. Masoero
  25. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nieciecza · On: K. Zapolnik · Off: D. Hilbrycht
  26. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Nieciecza
  27. 54′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  28. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Arka Gdynia 3–1 Nieciecza
  29. 56′Nieciecza score on 55′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  30. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Arka Gdynia · On: D. Kun · Off: A. Sidibe
  31. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Arka Gdynia · On: M. Milewski · Off: F. Walus
  32. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Arka Gdynia · On: J. Grobelny · Off: D. Arndt
  33. 83′We published Arka Gdynia at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nieciecza · On: D. Biniek · Off: S. Dabrowski
  35. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' K. Solecki · Arka Gdynia
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Arka Gdynia · On: N. Dziegielewski · Off: D. Kocyla
  37. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Nieciecza · On: A. Zarowny · Off: A. Putivtsev
  38. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arka Gdynia · On: E. Rama · Off: V. Gutkovskis
  39. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Arka Gdynia
  40. 94′Full time, 3–1. We called Arka Gdynia at 43% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. FTFULL TIME Arka Gdynia 3–1 Nieciecza
  42. FTArka Gdynia 3–1 Nieciecza · Arka Gdynia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arka Gdynia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arka Gdynia 43%, draw 25%, Nieciecza 32%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Arka Gdynia v NiecieczaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arka Gdynia win43%
Draw25%
Nieciecza win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski w Gdyni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arka Gdynia

Nieciecza

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 19 Oct · I Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Nieciecza11+420
15Arka Gdynia11−211

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arka gdynia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
43% The market42%
Us43%
Market42%

We make Arka Gdynia a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza1.58 – 1.34
Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 AugW0 D2 L4 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 11 v 2015 v 3
The market · Arka Gdynia win42% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:36
Our probability · Arka Gdynia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Arka Gdynia win43%42%+1
Draw25%26%−1
Nieciecza win32%32%0
Over 2.5 goals56%58%−2
Both teams to score58%61%−3
Over 1.5 goals79%79%0
Over 3.5 goals33%37%−4
Arka Gdynia or draw68%68%0
Arka Gdynia clean sheet27%––
Nieciecza clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.0 7.0 4.9 2.2 1 8.3 11.6 7.5 3.4 2 6.7 8.8 5.9 2.6 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Arka Gdynia down, Nieciecza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.57 of 8
Both scored7 of 8
Last meetingsARK 2–3 NIE · NIE 2–0 ARK · ARK 2–1 NIE · NIE 2–1 ARK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in I Liga this season · since 28 Aug

ARKA GDYNIA

DDLLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

NIECIECZA

DWWWDW2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki11+1021
2Polonia Warszawa12+521
3Nieciecza11+420
4Lechia Gdansk11+419
5Miedz Legnica12+718
6Warta Poznań11+418
7Ruch Chorzów11+318
8ŁKS Łódź11+318
9Stal Rzeszów11−517
10Polonia Bytom11−115
11Chrobry Głogów11−212
12Pogoń Siedlce11−212
13Odra Opole11−412
14Stal Mielec11−1112
15Arka Gdynia11−211
16Podbeskidzie11−211
17Unia Skierniewice11−611
18Puszcza Niepołomice11−59

The competition's standings before kick-off.