UJ Krakow W v Lech Poznan W prediction · Ekstraliga Women

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

UJ Krakow W 0–2 Lech Poznan W UJ KRAKOW W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UJ Krakow W win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.748

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UJ Krakow W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UJ Krakow W 47%, draw 22%, Lech Poznan W 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on UJ Krakow W v Lech Poznan WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

UJ Krakow W win47%

Draw22%

Lech Poznan W win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UJ Krakow W

Lech Poznan W

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Ekstraliga Women

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraliga Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	UJ Krakow W	7	−3	10
10	Lech Poznan W	7	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uj krakow w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 01:52 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make UJ Krakow W a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UJ Krakow W v Lech Poznan W~~1.81 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Ekstraliga Women this season · since 8 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UJ Krakow W win

Published at 48%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UJ Krakow W win	47%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Lech Poznan W win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
UJ Krakow W or draw	69%	–	–
UJ Krakow W clean sheet	25%	–	–
Lech Poznan W clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 5.9 4.0 1 7.5 9.8 7.1 3.4 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 3.9 5.4 3.8 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UJ Krakow W down, Lech Poznan W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 429 Ekstraliga Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraliga Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UJ Krakow W at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lech Poznan W away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for UJ Krakow W, 1.42 for Lech Poznan W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEC 4–1 UJK · UJK 1–1 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraliga Women this season · since 8 Aug

UJ KRAKOW W

WLDLWL2–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 0–3

LECH POZNAN W

LLLDLL0–5 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GKS Katowice W	7	+18	19
2	Górnik Łęczna W	7	+12	16
3	Pogon Szczecin W	8	+9	15
4	Czarni Sosnowiec W	6	+12	14
5	Akademia Piłkarska LG W	8	+2	14
6	UJ Krakow W	7	−3	10
7	Legia W	8	−4	10
8	Rekord Bielsko-Biala W	8	−8	7
9	UKS Łódź W	7	−7	6
10	Lech Poznan W	7	−11	4
11	Sleza Wroclaw W	7	−10	4
12	Slask Wroclaw W	8	−10	3