Lech Poznan W v Pogon Szczecin W prediction · Ekstraliga Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Lech Poznan W 1–3 Pogon Szczecin W POGON SZCZECIN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pogon Szczecin W win~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pogon Szczecin W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lech Poznan W 9%, draw 12%, Pogon Szczecin W 78%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Lech Poznan W v Pogon Szczecin WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lech Poznan W win9%

Draw12%

Pogon Szczecin W win78%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lech Poznan W

Pogon Szczecin W

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Ekstraliga Women

Last match: 4 Oct · Ekstraliga Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Pogon Szczecin W	7	+7	12
10	Lech Poznan W	6	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pogon szczecin w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

78% The market–

Us78%

We make Pogon Szczecin W a 78% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–3.1, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lech Poznan W v Pogon Szczecin W~~0.96 – 3.07

~~Form · last six in Ekstraliga Women this season · since 1 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lech Poznan W win	9%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin W win	78%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Lech Poznan W or draw	22%	–	–
Lech Poznan W clean sheet	5%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin W clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 8.4%

0123450 5.9 8.4 8.4 6.5 4.11 2.1 5.1 7.9 7.8 5.9 3.72 2.6 3.8 3.8 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lech Poznan W down, Pogon Szczecin W across0–5 goals a side shown (90.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 423 Ekstraliga Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraliga Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lech Poznan W at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pogon Szczecin W away: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Lech Poznan W, 3.07 for Pogon Szczecin W. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POG 3–0 LEC · LEC 1–3 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraliga Women this season · since 1 Aug

LECH POZNAN W

WLLLDL2–0 · 0–5 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3

POGON SZCZECIN W

LWWLWL1–3 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GKS Katowice W	6	+15	16
2	Górnik Łęczna W	6	+12	15
3	Czarni Sosnowiec W	5	+12	13
4	Akademia Piłkarska LG W	7	+2	13
5	Pogon Szczecin W	7	+7	12
6	UJ Krakow W	6	0	10
7	Legia W	7	−4	9
8	Rekord Bielsko-Biala W	7	−8	6
9	UKS Łódź W	6	−7	5
10	Lech Poznan W	6	−9	4
11	Slask Wroclaw W	7	−9	3
12	Sleza Wroclaw W	6	−11	1