Czarni Sosnowiec W v Pogon Szczecin W prediction · Ekstraliga Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Czarni Sosnowiec WDrawPogon Szczecin W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Czarni Sosnowiec W 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Czarni Sosnowiec W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Czarni Sosnowiec W 45%, draw 22%, Pogon Szczecin W 33%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Czarni Sosnowiec W v Pogon Szczecin WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Czarni Sosnowiec W win45%

Draw22%

Pogon Szczecin W win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:45

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Czarni Sosnowiec W

Pogon Szczecin W

10Days since last match14

Last match: 21 Oct · Ekstraliga Women

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraliga Women

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pogon Szczecin W	8	+9	15
4	Czarni Sosnowiec W	7	+10	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · czarni sosnowiec w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Czarni Sosnowiec W a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Czarni Sosnowiec W v Pogon Szczecin W~~1.89 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Ekstraliga Women this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Czarni Sosnowiec W win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin W win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw	67%	–	–
Czarni Sosnowiec W clean sheet	21%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin W clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 5.2 3.9 2.1 1 6.2 9.1 7.2 3.8 2 5.6 8.6 6.8 3.6 3 3.5 5.4 4.3 2.3 4 2.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Czarni Sosnowiec W down, Pogon Szczecin W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 431 Ekstraliga Women matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraliga Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pogon Szczecin W away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Czarni Sosnowiec W, 1.58 for Pogon Szczecin W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~POG 2–2 CZA · CZA 2–1 POG · POG 1–2 CZA · CZA 0–1 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraliga Women this season · since 16 Aug

CZARNI SOSNOWIEC W

DWWWDL3–3 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

POGON SZCZECIN W

WWLWLW4–1 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	GKS Katowice W	7	+18	19
2	Górnik Łęczna W	7	+12	16
3	Pogon Szczecin W	8	+9	15
4	Czarni Sosnowiec W	7	+10	14
5	Akademia Piłkarska LG W	8	+2	14
6	Legia W	8	−4	10
7	UJ Krakow W	8	−5	10
8	Sleza Wroclaw W	8	−8	7
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala W	8	−8	7
10	Lech Poznan W	8	−9	7
11	UKS Łódź W	7	−7	6
12	Slask Wroclaw W	8	−10	3