Zaglebie Lubin v Korona Kielce prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zaglebie LubinDrawKorona Kielce

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zaglebie Lubin 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zaglebie Lubin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zaglebie Lubin 43%, draw 29%, Korona Kielce 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Zaglebie Lubin v Korona KielceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zaglebie Lubin win43%

Draw29%

Korona Kielce win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueKGHM Zaglebie Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zaglebie Lubin

Korona Kielce

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 24 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zaglebie lubin winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Zaglebie Lubin a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zaglebie Lubin v Korona Kielce~~1.35 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~7 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zaglebie Lubin win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Korona Kielce win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Zaglebie Lubin or draw	72%	–	–
Zaglebie Lubin clean sheet	36%	–	–
Korona Kielce clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.3 8.5 5.0 1 11.4 13.8 6.6 2.3 2 8.4 8.6 4.5 3 3.8 3.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zaglebie Lubin down, Korona Kielce across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Korona Kielce away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Zaglebie Lubin, 1.04 for Korona Kielce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KOR 1–2 ZAG · ZAG 1–1 KOR · ZAG 1–1 KOR · KOR 2–0 ZAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 12 Sept

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN

WWLLWD2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–2

KORONA KIELCE

WLWLLW2–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–6 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6