Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia JAGIELLONIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jagiellonia win~~36%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.602

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jagiellonia win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jagiellonia 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Mateusz Grzybek · Zaglebie Lubin
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Zaglebie Lubin win 32%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zaglebie Lubin · On: David Čolina · Off: Mateusz Grzybek
45′SECOND HALF Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Jagiellonia
46′HALF-TIME Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Jagiellonia
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jagiellonia · On: Cezary Polak · Off: Bartlomiej Wdowik
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jagiellonia · On: Rodrigo Conceição · Off: Kamil Jóźwiak
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–45–28
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Jagiellonia win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
63′We said Jagiellonia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Jagiellonia · On: Dimitris Rallis · Off: Ousmane Sow
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Jakub·Sypek · Off: Filip Szymczak
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jagiellonia · On: Jeremy Agbonifo · Off: Dušan Stojinović
72′We said Jagiellonia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
76′We said Jagiellonia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Jagiellonia win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Jagiellonia win: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Zaglebie Lubin win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
78′77′: Sebastian Kerk on the scoresheet for Zaglebie Lubin, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Bernardo Vital · Jagiellonia
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Mateusz Dziewiatowski · Off: Sebastian Kerk
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Jagiellonia · On: Aleksandar·Cirkovic · Off: Bernardo Vital
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Marcel Regula · Zaglebie Lubin
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Jakub·Sypek · Zaglebie Lubin
97′1–0 at the end. Our 36% on Jagiellonia misses, and the record keeps it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Damian Michalski · Off: Josip Ćorluka
FTFULL TIME Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia
FTZaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia · Jagiellonia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Jagiellonia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zaglebie Lubin 36%, draw 28%, Jagiellonia 36%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Zaglebie Lubin v JagielloniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zaglebie Lubin win36%

Draw28%

Jagiellonia win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Zagłębia Lubin

RefereeJaroslaw Przybyl

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin

3-4-2-1

Jagiellonia

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zaglebie Lubin

Jagiellonia

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin

3-4-2-1

33 Z. Alomerović

5 A. Ławniczak

25 M. Nalepa

3 R. Yakuba

13 M. Grzybek

39 F. Kocaba

8 D. Dąbrowski

16 J. Ćorluka

37 S. Kerk

44 M. Reguła

18 F. Szymczak

Coach · L. Ojrzynski

Substitutes

6 · D. Čolina

20 · M. Dziewiatowski

30 · D. Hładun

26 · J. Kolan

19 · S. Łyczko

4 · D. Michalski

88 · M. Mlinarić

31 · I. Orlikowski

99 · C. Popielec

7 · J. Sypek

11 · A. Woźniak

Jagiellonia

4-3-3

50 S. Abramowicz

3 D. Stojinović

5 Bernardo Vital

4 Y. Kobayashi

20 B. Wdowik

30 O. Sow

6 T. Romanczuk

19 A. Klynge

72 K. Jóźwiak

11 Jesús Imaz

7 K. Szmyt

Coach · A. Siemieniec

Substitutes

27 · Rodrigo Conceição

9 · Dimitris Rallis

2 · C. Polak

1 · M. Perchel

23 · Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia

70 · J. Kucharski

44 · A. Konstantopoulos

14 · H. Finndell

8 · D. Drachal

32 · A. Ćirković

10 · J. Agbonifo

85 · Eryk Kozlowski

Our number · jagiellonia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market36%

Us36%

~~Market~~36%

We make Jagiellonia a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia~~1.37 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~9 v 10

~~The market · Jagiellonia win~~36% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jagiellonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zaglebie Lubin win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Jagiellonia win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Zaglebie Lubin or draw	64%	64%	0
Zaglebie Lubin clean sheet	25%	–	–
Jagiellonia clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.5 7.8 6.1 2.8 1 7.7 13.0 8.3 3.8 2 6.0 8.2 5.7 2.6 3 2.8 3.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zaglebie Lubin down, Jagiellonia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,623 Ekstraklasa matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jagiellonia away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Zaglebie Lubin, 1.38 for Jagiellonia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAG 1–0 ZAG · ZAG 0–0 JAG · JAG 1–3 ZAG · ZAG 1–3 JAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN

DDWWLL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

JAGIELLONIA

WLWLLL5–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
3	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	−4	12
13	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
14	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6