Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom WISLA PLOCK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wisla Plock win~~46%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.438

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.374

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wisla Plock win at 46%.
0′KICK-OFF Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom
2′Much as we predicted: Wisla Plock was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
14′We published Wisla Plock at 46%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Wisla Plock win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
15′Jurica Pršir scores for Wisla Plock on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Steve Kingue · Radomiak Radom
33′We published Wisla Plock at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
40′We published Wisla Plock at 46%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Wisla Plock 2–0 Radomiak Radom
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Wisla Plock win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Wisla Plock
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Wisla Plock win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom
47′HALF-TIME Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Wisla Plock · On: Deni Jurić · Off: Łukasz Sekulski
60′We published Wisla Plock at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radomiak Radom · On: Ibrahima Camará · Off: Roberto Oliveira Alves
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radomiak Radom · On: Conrado · Off: Lucas Lima Linhares
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radomiak Radom · On: Bi Irié Fernand Gouré · Off: Guilherme Luiz
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Žan Rogelj · Wisla Plock
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Radomiak Radom · On: Che Nunnely · Off: Ronaldo Lumungo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wisla Plock · On: Olaf Kobacki · Off: Jurica Pršir
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wisla Plock · On: Fabian Hiszpański · Off: Samuel Akere
72′We published Wisla Plock at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Wisla Plock win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wisla Plock · On: Kyriakos Savvidis · Off: Olaf Kobacki
85′9 shots for Radomiak Radom, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
87′We published Wisla Plock at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Wisla Plock win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
94′Radomiak Radom have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
95′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Radomiak Radom · On: Romário Baró · Off: Rafał Wolski
96′Radomiak Radom have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Wisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom
FTWisla Plock 1–0 Radomiak Radom · Wisla Plock win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wisla Plock are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wisla Plock 46%, draw 27%, Radomiak Radom 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Wisla Plock v Radomiak RadomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Wisla Plock win46%

Draw27%

Radomiak Radom win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueOrlen Arena

RefereeDaniel Stefanski

Line-ups

Wisla Plock

3-4-3

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wisla Plock

Radomiak Radom

10Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 12 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wisla Plock

3-4-3

12 R. Leszczyński

4 M. Haglind-Sangré

35 M. Kamiński

34 Afonso Silva

21 Ž. Rogelj

18 J. Pršir

5 Sidnei Tavares

19 D. Gallapeni

57 S. Akere

20 Ł. Sekulski

23 P. Kun

Coach · A. Majewski

Substitutes

41 · M. Więckowski

16 · F. Hiszpański

10 · S. Hamulić

26 · J. Burek

9 · D. Jurić

7 · O. Kobacki

91 · G. Kuchko

44 · P. Misiak

6 · K. Pomorski

88 · K. Savvidīs

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1

1 F. Majchrowicz

24 Z. Ouattara

14 S. Kingue

72 F. Koperski

13 J. Grzesik

10 R. Alves

77 C. Donis

90 Ronaldo Afonso

27 R. Wolski

82 Luquinhas

80 Guilherme Luiz

Coach · John Carver

Substitutes

97 · Conrado

8 · I. Camará

18 · Manu

26 · Adrián Diéguez

11 · F. Gouré

99 · B. Gradecki

7 · C. Nunnely

28 · Romário Baró

3 · K. Szcześniak

21 · Elves

Our number · wisla plock winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market50%

Us46%

~~Market~~50%

We make Wisla Plock a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom~~1.55 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~13 v 16

~~The market · Wisla Plock win~~50% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wisla Plock win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wisla Plock win	46%	50%	−4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Radomiak Radom win	27%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	59%	−9
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	38%	−10
Wisla Plock or draw	73%	75%	−2
Wisla Plock clean sheet	32%	–	–
Radomiak Radom clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.9 6.7 4.4 1 9.6 12.9 6.7 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.2 3 4.3 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wisla Plock down, Radomiak Radom across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,626 Ekstraklasa matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wisla Plock at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Wisla Plock, 1.13 for Radomiak Radom. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WIS 0–1 RAD · RAD 1–1 WIS · WIS 1–1 RAD · RAD 2–0 WIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 23 Aug

WISLA PLOCK

LLDWWL0–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

RADOMIAK RADOM

DWDLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	+10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	0	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	+2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	−5	15
10	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12
11	Motor Lublin	11	−4	12
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
14	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6