Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Wisla PlockDrawPiast Gliwice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Wisla Plock 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wisla Plock just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Wisla Plock 37%, draw 30%, Piast Gliwice 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Wisla Plock v Piast GliwiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Wisla Plock win37%

Draw30%

Piast Gliwice win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueOrlen Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wisla Plock

Piast Gliwice

12Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 24 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wisla plock winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Wisla Plock a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice~~1.20 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~10 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wisla Plock win	37%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Piast Gliwice win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Wisla Plock or draw	67%	–	–
Wisla Plock clean sheet	33%	–	–
Piast Gliwice clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.1 9.9 6.1 2.3 1 10.8 14.1 7.3 2.7 2 7.1 7.9 4.4 3 2.9 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wisla Plock down, Piast Gliwice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wisla Plock at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Piast Gliwice away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Wisla Plock, 1.11 for Piast Gliwice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PIA 1–0 WIS · WIS 2–0 PIA · PIA 1–0 WIS · WIS 1–0 PIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug

WISLA PLOCK

LDWWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

PIAST GLIWICE

WWLWDW3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6