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Wisla Krakow v Raków Częstochowa

Wisla Krakow

2–1Full time

Raków Częstochowa

Ekstraklasa · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

Wisla Krakow 2–1 Raków Częstochowa WISLA KRAKOW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wisla Krakow win~~39%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.556

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wisla Krakow win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wisla Krakow was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Wisla Krakow v Raków Częstochowa
26′7 shots for Wisla Krakow, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–32–32
35′9 shots for Wisla Krakow, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–35–31
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Wisla Krakow win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Wisla Krakow 0–0 Raków Częstochowa
46′HALF-TIME Wisla Krakow 0–0 Raków Częstochowa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Raków Częstochowa · On: Karol Struski · Off: Fran Tudor
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Raków Częstochowa · On: Mahir Emreli · Off: Tomasz Pienko
53′We published Wisla Krakow at 39%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–6
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Wisla Krakow 1–0 Raków Częstochowa
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Wisla Krakow win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 42%)
55′53′: Julius Ertlthaler on the scoresheet for Wisla Krakow, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
57′We published Wisla Krakow at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Raków Częstochowa · On: Vladyslav Kochergin · Off: Marko Bulat
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Raków Częstochowa · On: Jakub Jendryka · Off: Jean Carlos
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Wisla Krakow · On: Marko Bozic · Off: Julian Lelieveld
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Wisla Krakow · On: Thody Elie Youan · Off: Frederico Duarte
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Wisla Krakow · On: Víctor Meseguer · Off: James Igbekeme
68′We published Wisla Krakow at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
71′We said Wisla Krakow at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–61–19
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Wisla Krakow 1–1 Raków Częstochowa
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 21% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Wisla Krakow win 81%)
73′We said Wisla Krakow at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–17
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
74′Raków Częstochowa level it on 72′ through Lamine Diaby Fadiga. 1–1. 1–1 · 18–65–17
76′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 17–68–15
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Raków Częstochowa
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 85% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Wisla Krakow win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 68%)
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We published Wisla Krakow at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′We said Wisla Krakow at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–82–9
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Wisla Krakow 1–1 Raków Częstochowa
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Wisla Krakow win 90%)
84′We said Wisla Krakow at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–8
84′PENALTY · 82' Raków Częstochowa
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
85′Raków Częstochowa level it on 84′ through Lamine Diaby Fadiga. 1–1. 1–1 · 8–85–7
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Lamine Diaby Fadiga · Raków Częstochowa
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Jerzy Napieraj · Raków Częstochowa
89′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Jerzy Napieraj · Raków Częstochowa
91′We said Wisla Krakow at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Raków Częstochowa · On: Nils Zätterström · Off: Erick Otieno
100′We published Wisla Krakow at 39%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
100′Full time, 2–1. We called Wisla Krakow at 39% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
100′Kacper Duda scores for Wisla Krakow on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' Wisla Krakow 2–1 Raków Częstochowa
100′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+10' Wisla Krakow win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Wisla Krakow win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
101′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Wisla Krakow 2–1 Raków Częstochowa
FTWisla Krakow 2–1 Raków Częstochowa · Wisla Krakow win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wisla Krakow are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wisla Krakow 39%, draw 27%, Raków Częstochowa 34%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Wisla Krakow v Raków CzęstochowaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Wisla Krakow win39%

Draw27%

Raków Częstochowa win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

RefereeTomasz Kwiatkowski

Line-ups

Wisla Krakow

4-4-1-1

Raków Częstochowa

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wisla Krakow

Raków Częstochowa

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wisla Krakow

4-4-1-1

1 M. Łubik

34 R. Giger

6 A. Uryga

29 D. Grujčić

52 J. Krzyżanowski

10 Frederico Duarte

41 K. Duda

12 J. Igbekeme

2 J. Lelieveld

7 J. Ertlthaler

9 Ángel Rodado

Coach · M. Jop

Substitutes

17 · M. Božić

97 · W. Biedrzycki

8 · Marc Carbó

13 · M. Maisonneuve

23 · Víctor Meseguer

4 · R. Mikulec

93 · B. Neugebauer

27 · É. Youan

Raków Częstochowa

3-4-3

1 K. Trelowski

7 F. Tudor

25 B. Racovițan

4 S. Svarnas

20 Jean Carlos

6 O. Repka

5 M. Bulat

26 E. Otieno

80 L. Diaby-Fadiga

9 P. Makuch

21 T. Pieńko

Coach · Dawid Szwarga

Substitutes

39 · I. Brusberg

17 · J. Jendryka

71 · T. Karić

10 · V. Kochergin

15 · O. Kwiatkowski

2 · J. Napieraj

23 · K. Struski

3 · A. Brorsson

19 · N. Zätterström

29 · W. Żołneczko

99 · Adam Basse

11 · M. Emreli

Our number · wisla krakow winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market52%

Us39%

~~Market~~52%

We make Wisla Krakow a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wisla Krakow v Raków Częstochowa~~1.45 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 6~~8 v 18

~~The market · Wisla Krakow win~~52% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wisla Krakow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wisla Krakow win	39%	52%	−13
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Raków Częstochowa win	34%	24%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−8
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Wisla Krakow or draw	66%	76%	−10
Wisla Krakow clean sheet	27%	–	–
Raków Częstochowa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.4 7.3 5.5 2.5 1 8.0 12.8 7.8 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.6 2.5 3 3.2 4.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wisla Krakow down, Raków Częstochowa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,629 Ekstraklasa matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wisla Krakow at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Wisla Krakow, 1.33 for Raków Częstochowa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 18:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RAK 2–0 WIS · WIS 1–2 RAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug

WISLA KRAKOW

WDWWLD2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA

LWLLLW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
6	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
7	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
8	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	−15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6