Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Wieczysta Kraków 1–2 Raków Częstochowa RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Raków Częstochowa win~~39%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Raków Częstochowa win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa
2′Little has changed for our model: Raków Częstochowa 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Bogdan Racovitan · Raków Częstochowa
45′HALF-TIME Wieczysta Kraków 0–0 Raków Częstochowa
45′SECOND HALF Wieczysta Kraków 0–0 Raków Częstochowa
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Raków Częstochowa win 33%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–43–30
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Raków Częstochowa win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Stratos Svarnas · Raków Częstochowa
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Lisandro Semedo · Off: José Antonio de la Rosa Garrido
61′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–48–27
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Raków Częstochowa · On: Lamine Diaby Fadiga · Off: Isak Brusberg
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Raków Częstochowa · On: Jean Carlos · Off: Tomasz Pienko
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Duje Dujmovic · Wieczysta Kraków
66′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–53–24
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Antonio Milic · Wieczysta Kraków
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Kamil Pestka · Wieczysta Kraków
69′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Wieczysta Kraków 1–0 Raków Częstochowa
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Raków Częstochowa win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Wieczysta Kraków win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
70′Wieczysta Kraków ahead on 69′ through Lisandro Semedo. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–3
79′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–72–14
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Wieczysta Kraków 1–1 Raków Częstochowa
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Raków Częstochowa win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Wieczysta Kraków win 13%)
80′Lamine Diaby Fadiga scores for Raków Częstochowa on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–74–13
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Christophe Lungoyi · Off: Efthymios Koulouris
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Matúš Vojtko · Off: Kamil Pestka
84′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Raków Częstochowa win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
88′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Wieczysta Kraków 1–2 Raków Częstochowa
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Raków Częstochowa win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Raków Częstochowa win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Raków Częstochowa · On: Adam Basse · Off: Mahir Emreli
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Bartosz Bialek · Off: Lucas Piazón
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Kamil Dankowski · Off: Karol Fila
89′We said Raków Częstochowa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′88′: Lamine Diaby Fadiga on the scoresheet for Raków Częstochowa, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Raków Częstochowa · On: Nils Zätterström · Off: Erick Otieno
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Raków Częstochowa · On: Arvid Brorsson · Off: Patryk Makuch
94′1–2 at the end. Our 39% on Raków Częstochowa comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Wieczysta Kraków 1–2 Raków Częstochowa
FTWieczysta Kraków 1–2 Raków Częstochowa · Raków Częstochowa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Raków Częstochowa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Wieczysta Kraków 35%, draw 26%, Raków Częstochowa 39%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Wieczysta Kraków v Raków CzęstochowaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Wieczysta Kraków win35%

Draw26%

Raków Częstochowa win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSynerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

RefereePawel Raczkowski

Line-ups

Wieczysta Kraków

3-4-3

Raków Częstochowa

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wieczysta Kraków

Raków Częstochowa

4Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 9 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Wieczysta Kraków	10	−4	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wieczysta Kraków

3-4-3

77 M. Kochalski

15 A. Đermanović

16 A. Milić

55 D. Dujmović

4 K. Fila

10 T. Christensen

20 M. Maigaard

33 K. Pestka

19 José de la Rosa

9 E. Koulouris

12 Lucas Piazón

Coach · Ž. Kopić

Substitutes

17 · K. Dankowski

21 · B. Białek

11 · N. Knežević

8 · B. Lederman

88 · C. Lungoyi

23 · Miki Villar

1 · A. Mikułko

97 · T. Mras

70 · P. Pušić

7 · Lisandro Semedo

27 · M. Vojtko

13 · K. Zagrodzki

Raków Częstochowa

4-4-1-1

1 K. Trelowski

7 F. Tudor

25 B. Racovițan

4 S. Svarnas

26 E. Otieno

11 M. Emreli

23 K. Struski

6 O. Repka

21 T. Pieńko

39 I. Brusberg

9 P. Makuch

Coach · T. Kaczmarek

Substitutes

3 · A. Brorsson

29 · W. Żołneczko

19 · N. Zätterström

20 · Jean Carlos

36 · M. Perović

44 · B. Mirčetić

15 · O. Kwiatkowski

10 · V. Kochergin

71 · T. Karić

80 · L. Diaby-Fadiga

99 · Adam Basse

2 · J. Napieraj

Our number · raków częstochowa winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market29%

Us39%

~~Market~~29%

We make Raków Częstochowa a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa~~1.41 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~15 v 18

~~The market · Raków Częstochowa win~~29% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Raków Częstochowa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wieczysta Kraków win	35%	46%	−11
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Raków Częstochowa win	39%	29%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	56%	62%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	41%	−7
Wieczysta Kraków or draw	61%	71%	−10
Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet	22%	–	–
Raków Częstochowa clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 7.3 6.3 3.2 1 6.6 12.2 8.5 4.3 2 5.3 7.9 5.9 3.0 3 2.6 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wieczysta Kraków down, Raków Częstochowa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,618 Ekstraklasa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Wieczysta Kraków, 1.51 for Raków Częstochowa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug

WIECZYSTA KRAKÓW

LDLDWL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–2

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	+7	18
6	Wisla Krakow	10	+3	17
7	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	10	−1	9
14	Motor Lublin	10	−5	9
15	Wieczysta Kraków	10	−4	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3