Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Wieczysta KrakówDrawJagiellonia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jagiellonia 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Jagiellonia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Wieczysta Kraków 35%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia 39%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Wieczysta Kraków v JagielloniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Wieczysta Kraków win35%

Draw25%

Jagiellonia win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSynerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wieczysta Kraków

Jagiellonia

15Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Jagiellonia a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia~~1.51 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~15 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wieczysta Kraków win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Jagiellonia win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Wieczysta Kraków or draw	61%	–	–
Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet	20%	–	–
Jagiellonia clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.4 6.3 5.7 3.1 1 5.8 11.5 8.5 4.6 2 5.1 8.0 6.4 3.4 3 2.6 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wieczysta Kraków down, Jagiellonia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.50 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Jagiellonia away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Wieczysta Kraków, 1.61 for Jagiellonia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 3 Sept

WIECZYSTA KRAKÓW

DLDWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

JAGIELLONIA

LWLLLL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6