Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Widzew Łódź 0–0 Wisla Krakow WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Widzew Łódź win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.786

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Widzew Łódź win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow
2′Much as we predicted: Widzew Łódź was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Giannis Papanikolaou · Widzew Łódź
39′Much as we predicted: Widzew Łódź was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–36–29
45′HALF-TIME Widzew Łódź 0–0 Wisla Krakow
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Widzew Łódź · On: Lindon Selahi · Off: Giannis Papanikolaou
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Widzew Łódź · On: Juljan Shehu · Off: Fran Alvarez
46′SECOND HALF Widzew Łódź 0–0 Wisla Krakow
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Widzew Łódź win 32%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Steve Kapuadi · Widzew Łódź
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' mariusz fornalczyk · Widzew Łódź
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' Widzew Łódź win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–45–25
58′We said Widzew Łódź at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–24
60′13 shots for Wisla Krakow, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–49–23
66′We said Widzew Łódź at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
66′PENALTY · 62' Wisla Krakow
67′PENALTY MISSED · 66' Angel·Rodado · Wisla Krakow
68′Wisla Krakow have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–58–20
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Widzew Łódź · On: Emil Kornvig · Off: Dani Silva
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Widzew Łódź · On: Darian Males · Off: mariusz fornalczyk
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Widzew Łódź win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
73′We said Widzew Łódź at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wisla Krakow · On: Thody Elie Youan · Off: Julian Lelieveld
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Wisla Krakow · On: Marc Carbo · Off: James Igbekeme
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Widzew Łódź · On: Ioan Vermeșan · Off: Karol Świderski
79′We said Widzew Łódź at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
81′Wisla Krakow have had 20 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 12–78–10
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Widzew Łódź win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Widzew Łódź at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–84–7
90′We said Widzew Łódź at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lindon Selahi · Widzew Łódź
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Juljan Shehu · Widzew Łódź
FTFULL TIME Widzew Łódź 0–0 Wisla Krakow
FTWidzew Łódź 0–0 Wisla Krakow · Widzew Łódź win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

Widzew Łódź are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Widzew Łódź 40%, draw 28%, Wisla Krakow 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Widzew Łódź v Wisla KrakowBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · abandoned, not graded

Widzew Łódź win40%

Draw28%

Wisla Krakow win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Widzewa Łódź

RefereeMarcin Szczerbowicz

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź

4-1-4-1

Wisla Krakow

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Widzew Łódź

Wisla Krakow

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Wisla Krakow	10	+3	17
13	Widzew Łódź	10	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź

4-1-4-1

1 B. Drągowski

70 J. Gazibegović

25 P. Wiśniewski

14 Visus

3 S. Kapuadi

5 G. Papanikolaou

79 S. Biuk

10 Fran Álvarez

80 Dani Silva

7 M. Fornalczyk

28 K. Świderski

Coach · M. Stolarski

Substitutes

18 · L. Selahi

8 · E. Kornvig

19 · D. Males

91 · M. Krajewski

20 · A. Klukowski

30 · V. Ilić

48 · Franciszek Golański

17 · C. Cheng

6 · J. Shehu

90 · Ioan Vermeșan

4 · M. Żyro

99 · S. Bergier

Wisla Krakow

4-2-3-1

1 M. Łubik

34 R. Giger

6 A. Uryga

29 D. Grujčić

52 J. Krzyżanowski

41 K. Duda

12 J. Igbekeme

10 Frederico Duarte

7 J. Ertlthaler

2 J. Lelieveld

9 Ángel Rodado

Coach · M. Jop

Substitutes

27 · É. Youan

32 · Oliwier Plawinski

93 · B. Neugebauer

4 · R. Mikulec

23 · Víctor Meseguer

13 · M. Maisonneuve

50 · M. Kutwa

8 · Marc Carbó

97 · W. Biedrzycki

Our number · widzew łódź winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · abandoned, not graded

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Widzew Łódź a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow~~1.43 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~13 v 6

~~The market · Widzew Łódź win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Widzew Łódź win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. The market has gone from 42% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Widzew Łódź win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Wisla Krakow win	32%	33%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Widzew Łódź or draw	68%	67%	+1
Widzew Łódź clean sheet	29%	–	–
Wisla Krakow clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.0 7.6 5.4 2.3 1 8.8 13.1 7.6 3.2 2 6.9 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Widzew Łódź down, Wisla Krakow across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,618 Ekstraklasa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Widzew Łódź at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wisla Krakow away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Widzew Łódź, 1.26 for Wisla Krakow. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WIS 1–1 WID · WID 1–3 WIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 Aug

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ

DLDDDL3–3 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

WISLA KRAKOW

DWDWWL2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	+7	18
6	Wisla Krakow	10	+3	17
7	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	10	−1	9
14	Motor Lublin	10	−5	9
15	Wieczysta Kraków	10	−4	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3