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Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze

Widzew Łódź
1–1Full time
Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa · FRI 23 OCT · Stadion Widzewa Łódź

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01
Widzew Łódź 1–1 Gornik Zabrze GORNIK ZABRZE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Gornik Zabrze win37%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.749
The market’s Brier score0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gornik Zabrze win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gornik Zabrze 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze
  4. 16′A goal for Widzew Łódź on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Widzew Łódź 1–0 Gornik Zabrze
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Gornik Zabrze win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
  7. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Widzew Łódź win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Gornik Zabrze win 35%)
  8. 17′We said Gornik Zabrze at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
  9. 17′Karol Świderski scores for Widzew Łódź on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
  10. 22′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Widzew Łódź · On: Stipe Biuk · Off: mariusz fornalczyk
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
  12. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Malthe Hojholt · Gornik Zabrze
  13. 40′We said Gornik Zabrze at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  14. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Widzew Łódź 1–1 Gornik Zabrze
  15. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Gornik Zabrze win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
  16. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Widzew Łódź win 69%)
  17. 42′40′: Kacper Urbanski on the scoresheet for Gornik Zabrze, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–40–31
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Widzew Łódź 1–1 Gornik Zabrze
  19. 46′Gornik Zabrze have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 28–42–30
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Widzew Łódź 1–1 Gornik Zabrze
  21. 47′12 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 27–43–30
  22. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Gornik Zabrze win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  23. 59′We said Gornik Zabrze at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 24–51–25
  24. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Widzew Łódź · On: Sebastian Bergier · Off: Karol Świderski
  25. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Widzew Łódź · On: Christopher Cheng · Off: Steve Kapuadi
  26. 61′We said Gornik Zabrze at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
  27. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gornik Zabrze · On: Maksym Khlan · Off: Zeidane Inoussa
  28. 68′Gornik Zabrze have had 17 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 19–60–21
  29. 70′We said Gornik Zabrze at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–62–19
  30. 71′20 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–64–19
  31. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Giannis Papanikolaou · Widzew Łódź
  32. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Gornik Zabrze win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  33. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gornik Zabrze · On: Erik Prekop · Off: Sondre Liseth
  34. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Widzew Łódź · On: Marcel Krajewski · Off: Jusuf Gazibegovic
  35. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Widzew Łódź · On: Fran Alvarez · Off: Darian Males
  36. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Gornik Zabrze win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  37. 87′24 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 5–89–6
  38. 90′We said Gornik Zabrze at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  39. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gornik Zabrze · On: Jarosław Kubicki · Off: Kacper Urbanski
  40. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' mariusz fornalczyk · Widzew Łódź
  41. FTFULL TIME Widzew Łódź 1–1 Gornik Zabrze
  42. FTWidzew Łódź 1–1 Gornik Zabrze · Gornik Zabrze win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gornik Zabrze just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Widzew Łódź 34%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 37%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Widzew Łódź v Gornik ZabrzeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Widzew Łódź win34%
Draw29%
Gornik Zabrze win37%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Widzewa Łódź

RefereeKarol Arys

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź

4-1-4-1

Gornik Zabrze

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Widzew Łódź

Gornik Zabrze

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 18 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gornik Zabrze11+1026
14Widzew Łódź11−110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź

4-1-4-1

1 B. Drągowski

70 J. Gazibegović

25 P. Wiśniewski

14 Visus

3 S. Kapuadi

5 G. Papanikolaou

19 D. Males

8 E. Kornvig

6 J. Shehu

7 M. Fornalczyk

28 K. Świderski

Coach · M. Stolarski

Substitutes

79 · S. Biuk

99 · S. Bergier

17 · C. Cheng

48 · Franciszek Golański

30 · V. Ilić

20 · A. Klukowski

91 · M. Krajewski

18 · L. Selahi

90 · Ioan Vermeșan

10 · Fran Álvarez

4 · M. Żyro

Gornik Zabrze

4-4-2

1 P. Schulze

21 O. Zmrzlý

26 R. Janicki

20 Josema Sánchez

64 E. Janža

19 Peter

6 M. Højholt

82 K. Urbański

27 Z. Inoussa

8 Paulo Bernardo

23 S. Liseth

Coach · M. Gašparík

Substitutes

24 · K. Semik

11 · E. Prekop

99 · T. Loska

14 · J. Kubicki

33 · M. Khlan

29 · W. Kania

7 · Y. Ikia Dimi

34 · B. Durdov

28 · B. Donio

66 · M. Dietz

4 · P. Bochniewicz

2 · P. Warczak

Our number · gornik zabrze winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
37% The market43%
Us37%
Market43%

We make Gornik Zabrze a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze1.19 – 1.26
Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 30 AugW0 D4 L2 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 10 v 2614 v 1
The market · Gornik Zabrze win43% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 19:16
Our probability · Gornik Zabrze win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Widzew Łódź win34%30%+4
Draw29%28%+1
Gornik Zabrze win37%43%−6
Over 2.5 goals44%49%−5
Both teams to score51%55%−4
Over 1.5 goals71%73%−2
Over 3.5 goals23%29%−6
Widzew Łódź or draw63%57%+6
Widzew Łódź clean sheet28%––
Gornik Zabrze clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%
0123450 9.8 9.8 6.8 2.9 1 9.2 13.9 8.1 3.4 2 6.1 7.6 4.8 2.0 3 2.4 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Widzew Łódź down, Gornik Zabrze across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.62
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsWID 0–0 GOR · GOR 3–2 WID · GOR 0–0 WID · WID 0–2 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 30 Aug

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ

LDDDLD2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

GORNIK ZABRZE

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gornik Zabrze11+1026
2Lech Poznan10+1825
3Legia Warszawa11+1323
4Pogon Szczecin10+921
5GKS Katowice11+618
6Wisla Krakow11+318
7Zaglebie Lubin11018
8Piast Gliwice11+217
9Korona Kielce11−515
10Wisla Plock10−514
11Cracovia Krakow11−312
12Motor Lublin11−412
13Jagiellonia10−412
14Widzew Łódź11−110
15Wieczysta Kraków11−58
16Radomiak Radom11−158
17Slask Wroclaw11−86
18Raków Częstochowa11−116

The competition's standings before kick-off.