Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Slask WroclawDrawWieczysta Kraków

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Slask Wroclaw 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slask Wroclaw are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slask Wroclaw 46%, draw 26%, Wieczysta Kraków 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta KrakówBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Slask Wroclaw win46%

Draw26%

Wieczysta Kraków win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Śląska Wrocław

RefereeMateusz Piszczelok

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slask Wroclaw

Wieczysta Kraków

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 16 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slask wroclaw winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market32%

Us46%

~~Market~~32%

We make Slask Wroclaw a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków~~1.69 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~17 v 15

~~The market · Slask Wroclaw win~~32% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slask Wroclaw win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slask Wroclaw win	46%	32%	+14
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Wieczysta Kraków win	28%	43%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Slask Wroclaw or draw	72%	57%	+15
Slask Wroclaw clean sheet	28%	–	–
Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 5.7 4.2 1 7.8 11.8 7.0 3.1 2 7.3 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slask Wroclaw down, Wieczysta Kraków across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wieczysta Kraków away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Slask Wroclaw, 1.29 for Wieczysta Kraków. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WIE 3–3 SLA · SLA 1–1 WIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug

SLASK WROCLAW

DLLLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–3

WIECZYSTA KRAKÓW

DLDWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6