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Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan

Slask Wroclaw

1–4Full time

Lech Poznan

Ekstraklasa · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Śląska Wrocław

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Slask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech Poznan LECH POZNAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lech Poznan win~~45%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.253

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lech Poznan win at 45%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Lech Poznan 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
10′Little has changed for our model: Lech Poznan 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–27–45
30′We said Lech Poznan at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 9–19–73
33′Filip Jagiełło scores for Lech Poznan on 31′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–73
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–19–73
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
38′Filip Jagiełło scores for Lech Poznan on 31′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–74
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Lech Poznan win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Michal Gurgul · Lech Poznan
45′SECOND HALF Slask Wroclaw 0–1 Lech Poznan
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Wojciech Monka · Lech Poznan
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Slask Wroclaw 0–2 Lech Poznan · Filip Jagiełło
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Slask Wroclaw 0–2 Lech Poznan · Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Karol Linetty · Slask Wroclaw
59′SECOND HALF Slask Wroclaw 0–1 Lech Poznan
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lech Poznan · On: antoni kozubal · Off: Filip Jagiełło
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lech Poznan · On: Patrick Walemark · Off: Robert Gumny
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Slask Wroclaw 0–3 Lech Poznan · Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Slask Wroclaw · On: Malaly Dembele · Off: luka marjanac
70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Slask Wroclaw · On: Adam Ciućka · Off: Karol Linetty
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Slask Wroclaw 0–3 Lech Poznan · Patrick Walemark
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lech Poznan · On: Daniel Håkans · Off: Leo Bengtsson
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lech Poznan · On: Y. Agnero · Off: Mikael Ishak
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Slask Wroclaw 0–4 Lech Poznan · Patrick Walemark
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Slask Wroclaw 0–4 Lech Poznan · Patrick Walemark
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slask Wroclaw · On: Leltsin Jeronimo Semedo Camoes · Off: Przemyslaw Banaszak
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slask Wroclaw · On: Eniss Shabani · Off: Piotr Samiec-Talar
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lech Poznan · On: Gustav Berggren · Off: Radosław Murawski
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Marc Llinares · Slask Wroclaw
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Slask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech Poznan · Patrick Walemark
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Slask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech Poznan · Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Patrick Walemark · Lech Poznan
FTFULL TIME Slask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech Poznan
FTSlask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech Poznan · Lech Poznan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Slask Wroclaw win28%

Draw27%

Lech Poznan win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Stadion Śląska Wrocław

Referee · Patryk Gryckiewicz

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Slask Wroclaw

5-3-2

1 K. Niemczycki

21 A. Timossi

33 Y. Matsenko

5 L. Ba

44 M. Malec

8 M. Llinares

7 P. Samiec-Talar

17 K. Linetty

20 G. Tomasiewicz

11 L. Marjanac

19 P. Banaszak

Coach · Ante Simundza

Substitutes

25 · M. Szromnik

27 · J. Jurcec

2 · D. Szala

4 · M. Dijakovic

15 · J. Yriarte

77 · E. Shabani

10 · P. M. Dembele

9 · Ieltsin Camoes

88 · A. Ciucka

Lech Poznan

4-4-2

1 M. Lis

2 J. Pereira

72 M. Skrzypczak

27 W. Monka

15 M. Gurgul

20 R. Gumny

22 R. Murawski

21 P. Rodriguez

14 L. Bengtsson

9 M. Ishak

24 F. Jagiello

Coach · Niels Frederiksen

Substitutes

33 · M. Pruchniewski

59 · T. Yegbe

5 · G. Berggren

77 · L. Palma

43 · A. Kozubal

10 · P. Walemark

7 · Y. Agnero

54 · K. Jakobczyk

11 · D. Hakans

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Slask Wroclaw

5-3-2

1 K. Niemczycki

21 A. Timossi

33 Y. Matsenko

5 L. Ba

44 M. Malec

8 M. Llinares

7 P. Samiec-Talar

17 K. Linetty

20 G. Tomasiewicz

11 L. Marjanac

19 P. Banaszak

Coach · Ante Simundza

Substitutes

25 · M. Szromnik

27 · J. Jurcec

2 · D. Szala

4 · M. Dijakovic

15 · J. Yriarte

77 · E. Shabani

10 · P. M. Dembele

9 · Ieltsin Camoes

88 · A. Ciucka

Lech Poznan

4-4-2

1 M. Lis

2 J. Pereira

72 M. Skrzypczak

27 W. Monka

15 M. Gurgul

20 R. Gumny

22 R. Murawski

21 P. Rodriguez

14 L. Bengtsson

9 M. Ishak

24 F. Jagiello

Coach · Niels Frederiksen

Substitutes

33 · M. Pruchniewski

59 · T. Yegbe

5 · G. Berggren

77 · L. Palma

43 · A. Kozubal

10 · P. Walemark

7 · Y. Agnero

54 · K. Jakobczyk

11 · D. Hakans

Our number · lech poznan winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

45% The market59%

Us45%

~~Market~~59%

We make Lech Poznan a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slask Wroclaw win	28%	19%	+9
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Lech Poznan win	45%	59%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	53%	63%	−10
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	43%	−11
Slask Wroclaw or draw	55%	41%	+14
Slask Wroclaw clean sheet	21%	–	–
Lech Poznan clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.1 8.7 7.6 4.1 1 6.4 12.5 9.2 4.9 2 4.5 7.0 5.6 3.0 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slask Wroclaw down, Lech Poznan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,610 Ekstraklasa matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lech Poznan away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Slask Wroclaw, 1.59 for Lech Poznan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SLA 3–1 LEC · LEC 1–0 SLA · LEC 0–0 SLA · SLA 3–1 LEC

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

SLASK WROCLAW

LDDLLL1–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

LECH POZNAN

WWWWLW3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	+8	22
2	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	+10	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
8	Zaglebie Lubin	9	+1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
10	Jagiellonia	8	−1	12
11	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
12	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
13	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
14	Cracovia Krakow	9	−5	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Slask Wroclaw	9	−4	6
17	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3