Raków Częstochowa v Pogon Szczecin prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Raków CzęstochowaDrawPogon Szczecin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Raków Częstochowa 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raków Częstochowa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Raków Częstochowa 43%, draw 27%, Pogon Szczecin 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Raków Częstochowa v Pogon SzczecinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Raków Częstochowa win43%

Draw27%

Pogon Szczecin win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

Venuezondacrypto Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Raków Częstochowa

Pogon Szczecin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raków częstochowa winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Raków Częstochowa v Pogon Szczecin~~1.56 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 24~~18 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raków Częstochowa win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Raków Częstochowa or draw	70%	–	–
Raków Częstochowa clean sheet	29%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.0 6.6 4.8 2.0 1 8.4 12.6 7.3 3.1 2 7.3 9.0 5.7 2.4 3 3.8 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raków Częstochowa down, Pogon Szczecin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pogon Szczecin away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Raków Częstochowa, 1.26 for Pogon Szczecin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAK 2–0 POG · POG 2–0 RAK · POG 1–0 RAK · RAK 1–0 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 7 Sept

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA

WLLLWL2–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–2

POGON SZCZECIN

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6