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Raków Częstochowa v GKS Katowice

Raków Częstochowa

1–4Full time

GKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa · FRI 9 OCT · Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Raków Częstochowa 1–4 GKS Katowice RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Raków Częstochowa win~~51%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.906

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Raków Częstochowa win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Raków Częstochowa was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
1′KICK-OFF Raków Częstochowa v GKS Katowice
32′7.0 shots for GKS Katowice, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 45–31–24
33′GKS Katowice find the net on 34′. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–26–55
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Raków Częstochowa 0–1 GKS Katowice
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Raków Częstochowa win: 51% at kick-off, 19% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' GKS Katowice win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Raków Częstochowa win 19%)
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Raków Częstochowa 0–1 GKS Katowice
34′We said Raków Częstochowa at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
36′GKS Katowice have had 8.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 44–32–23
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Raków Częstochowa 1–1 GKS Katowice · Ilia Shkurin
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Raków Częstochowa win: 51% at kick-off, 44% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Raków Częstochowa win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was GKS Katowice win 23%)
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' Raków Częstochowa 1–1 GKS Katowice · Patryk Makuch
37′Patryk Makuch scores for Raków Częstochowa on 37′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–33–23
45′HALF-TIME Raków Częstochowa 1–1 GKS Katowice
45′SECOND HALF Raków Częstochowa 1–1 GKS Katowice
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Raków Częstochowa 1–2 GKS Katowice · Patryk Makuch
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Raków Częstochowa 1–2 GKS Katowice · Bartosz Nowak
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Raków Częstochowa 1–3 GKS Katowice · Bartosz Nowak
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Raków Częstochowa 1–3 GKS Katowice · Mateusz·Kowalczyk
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Lukas Klemenz · GKS Katowice
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Raków Częstochowa · On: Adin molnar · Off: Marko Bulat
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Raków Częstochowa · On: Adam Basse · Off: Mahir Emreli
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Raków Częstochowa · On: Isak Brusberg · Off: Jean Carlos
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Karol Struski · Raków Częstochowa
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' GKS Katowice · On: Borja Galan · Off: Marcel Wedrychowski
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' GKS Katowice · On: Arkadiusz Jedrych · Off: Alan Czerwiński
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Raków Częstochowa · On: Bogdan·Mircetic · Off: Karol Struski
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Raków Częstochowa · On: Lamine Diaby Fadiga · Off: Patryk Makuch
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' GKS Katowice · On: Eman Marković · Off: Mateusz Wdowiak
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' GKS Katowice · On: Sebastian Milewski · Off: Mateusz·Kowalczyk
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Borja Galan · GKS Katowice
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Gabriel Kobylak · GKS Katowice
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' GKS Katowice · On: Adam Zreľák · Off: Ilia Shkurin
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Raków Częstochowa 1–4 GKS Katowice · Mateusz·Kowalczyk
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Jerzy Napieraj · Raków Częstochowa
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Raków Częstochowa 1–4 GKS Katowice · Borja Galan
FTFULL TIME Raków Częstochowa 1–4 GKS Katowice
FTRaków Częstochowa 1–4 GKS Katowice · Raków Częstochowa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Raków Częstochowa win51%

Draw25%

GKS Katowice win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie

Referee · Damian Kos

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa

4-2-3-1

1 K. Trelowski

7 F. Tudor

3 A. Brorsson

4 S. Svarnas

2 J. Napieraj

6 O. Repka

5 M. Bulat

9 P. Makuch

23 K. Struski

20 J. C. Silva

11 M. Emreli

Coach · Tomasz Kaczmarek

Substitutes

71 · T. Karic

25 · B. Racovitan

19 · N. Zatterstrom

10 · V. Kochergin

21 · T. Pienko

44 · B. Mircetic

88 · A. Molnar

15 · O. Kwiatkowski

80 · L. Diaby-Fadiga

36 · M. Perovic

39 · I. Brusberg

99 · A. Basse

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

87 G. Kobylak

30 A. Czerwinski

6 L. Klemenz

55 P. Resta

23 M. Wasielewski

19 K. Lukasiak

77 M. Kowalczyk

7 M. Wdowiak

10 M. Wedrychowski

17 I. Shkurin

27 B. Nowak

Coach · Rafal Gorak

Substitutes

1 · M. Kikolski

4 · A. Jedrych

14 · M. Olsen

8 · B. Galan

15 · E. Markovic

31 · S. Bartlewicz

97 · E. Jirka

22 · S. Milewski

68 · B. Wolski

99 · A. Zrelak

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa

4-2-3-1

1 K. Trelowski

7 F. Tudor

3 A. Brorsson

4 S. Svarnas

2 J. Napieraj

6 O. Repka

5 M. Bulat

9 P. Makuch

23 K. Struski

20 J. C. Silva

11 M. Emreli

Coach · Tomasz Kaczmarek

Substitutes

71 · T. Karic

25 · B. Racovitan

19 · N. Zatterstrom

10 · V. Kochergin

21 · T. Pienko

44 · B. Mircetic

88 · A. Molnar

15 · O. Kwiatkowski

80 · L. Diaby-Fadiga

36 · M. Perovic

39 · I. Brusberg

99 · A. Basse

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

87 G. Kobylak

30 A. Czerwinski

6 L. Klemenz

55 P. Resta

23 M. Wasielewski

19 K. Lukasiak

77 M. Kowalczyk

7 M. Wdowiak

10 M. Wedrychowski

17 I. Shkurin

27 B. Nowak

Coach · Rafal Gorak

Substitutes

1 · M. Kikolski

4 · A. Jedrych

14 · M. Olsen

8 · B. Galan

15 · E. Markovic

31 · S. Bartlewicz

97 · E. Jirka

22 · S. Milewski

68 · B. Wolski

99 · A. Zrelak

Our number · raków częstochowa winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

51% The market46%

Us51%

~~Market~~46%

We make Raków Częstochowa a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · raków częstochowa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raków Częstochowa win	51%	46%	+5
Draw	25%	25%	0
GKS Katowice win	24%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	58%	64%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Raków Częstochowa or draw	76%	71%	+6
Raków Częstochowa clean sheet	32%	–	–
GKS Katowice clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 5.2 3.5 1 8.5 11.7 6.2 2.4 2 8.4 9.6 5.5 2.2 3 5.1 5.7 3.3 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raków Częstochowa down, GKS Katowice across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,608 Ekstraklasa matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). GKS Katowice away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Raków Częstochowa, 1.16 for GKS Katowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RAK 1–0 GKS · GKS 0–1 RAK · RAK 1–2 GKS · GKS 0–1 RAK

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA

LLLWLL2–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–3

GKS KATOWICE

LWWLLW0–1 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	+8	22
2	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	+10	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
6	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
7	Zaglebie Lubin	9	+1	15
8	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
9	GKS Katowice	8	+3	12
10	Jagiellonia	8	−1	12
11	Wisla Plock	8	−3	11
12	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
13	Cracovia Krakow	9	−5	8
14	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	9	−4	6
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
17	Wieczysta Kraków	8	−6	5
18	Raków Częstochowa	9	−9	3