Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor Lublin RADOMIAK RADOM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Radomiak Radom win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.767

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.659

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Radomiak Radom win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Radomiak Radom 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
25′25′ and it is 1–0: Filip Koperski on the scoresheet for Radomiak Radom. 1–0 · 71–19–10
26′24′ and it is 1–0: Filip Koperski on the scoresheet for Radomiak Radom. 1–0 · 71–19–10
27′We said Radomiak Radom at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Radomiak Radom win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Christos Donis · Radomiak Radom
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Makan Aiko · Motor Lublin
45′HALF-TIME Radomiak Radom 1–0 Motor Lublin
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Radomiak Radom · On: Lucas Lima Linhares · Off: Elves Baldé
46′SECOND HALF Radomiak Radom 1–0 Motor Lublin
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor Lublin · Filip Koperski
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor Lublin · Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Motor Lublin · On: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao · Off: Makan Aiko
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Motor Lublin · On: Marek Kristian Bartos · Off: Bartosz Bereszyński
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Radomiak Radom · On: Guilherme Luiz · Off: Bi Irié Fernand Gouré
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Radomiak Radom · On: Abdoul Tapsoba · Off: Rafał Wolski
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Radomiak Radom 1–2 Motor Lublin · Karol Czubak
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Radomiak Radom · On: Ibrahima Camará · Off: Roberto Oliveira Alves
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Motor Lublin · On: Mateusz Legowski · Off: Rony Lopes
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Radomiak Radom 2–2 Motor Lublin · Karol Czubak
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Radomiak Radom 2–2 Motor Lublin · Steve Kingue (assist Ibrahima Camará)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Radomiak Radom · On: Manu · Off: Ronaldo Lumungo
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Lucas Lima Linhares · Radomiak Radom
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Marek Kristian Bartos · Motor Lublin
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Motor Lublin · On: Paskal Konrad Meyer · Off: Yacine Bourhane
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor Lublin · Steve Kingue
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor Lublin · Christopher Simon
FTFULL TIME Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor Lublin
FTRadomiak Radom 2–3 Motor Lublin · Radomiak Radom win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Radomiak Radom win45%

Draw25%

Motor Lublin win29%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueStadion Radomiaka Radom

RefereeTomasz Kwiatkowski

Line-ups

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1

Motor Lublin

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Radomiak Radom

Motor Lublin

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1

1 F. Majchrowicz

3 K. Szcześniak

14 S. Kingue

72 F. Koperski

13 J. Grzesik

10 R. Alves

77 C. Donis

90 Ronaldo Afonso

27 R. Wolski

21 Elves

11 F. Gouré

Coach · John Carver

Substitutes

8 · I. Camará

18 · Manu

26 · Adrián Diéguez

99 · B. Gradecki

23 · K. Karasek

82 · Luquinhas

7 · C. Nunnely

80 · Guilherme Luiz

28 · Romário Baró

15 · A. Tapsoba

97 · Conrado

Motor Lublin

4-1-4-1

33 G. Tratnik

17 K. Lukoszek

18 B. Bereszyński

4 T. Plavotić

24 F. Luberecki

27 Y. Bourhane

30 M. Ndiaye

9 Rony Lopes

8 C. Simon

70 M. Aïko

10 K. Czubak

Coach · M. Misiura

Substitutes

5 · A. Akatov

39 · M. Bartoš

90 · Dominik Gregorski

23 · F. Haxha

2 · Paskal Konrad Meyer

71 · M. Popa

77 · Mateusz Posmyk

29 · T. Santos

47 · Alioune Tall

22 · M. Zlomanczuk

11 · Fábio Ronaldo

6 · M. Łęgowski

Our number · radomiak radom winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Radomiak Radom a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · radomiak radom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radomiak Radom win	45%	39%	+6
Draw	25%	27%	−1
Motor Lublin win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Radomiak Radom or draw	71%	66%	+5
Radomiak Radom clean sheet	26%	–	–
Motor Lublin clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.8 5.5 4.3 1 7.3 11.7 7.2 3.2 2 6.9 9.2 6.1 2.7 3 3.9 5.2 3.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radomiak Radom down, Motor Lublin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Ekstraklasa matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.6% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radomiak Radom at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Motor Lublin away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Radomiak Radom, 1.34 for Motor Lublin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 16:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RAD 1–1 MOT · MOT 2–2 RAD · RAD 2–3 MOT · MOT 1–0 RAD

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

RADOMIAK RADOM

LDWDLL0–5 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–5

MOTOR LUBLIN

WDLLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	Wisla Krakow	10	+3	17
6	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
7	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	10	−1	9
14	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3