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Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom

Pogon Szczecin
4–3Full time
Radomiak Radom

Ekstraklasa · SAT 24 OCT · Florian-Krygier-Stadion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17
Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom POGON SZCZECIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Pogon Szczecin win60%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.247
The market’s Brier score0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay30 notes · 42 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pogon Szczecin win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Pogon Szczecin 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom
  4. 5′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Pogon Szczecin
  5. 10′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–24–42
  6. 10′Radomiak Radom score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 33–24–42
  7. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Radomiak Radom
  8. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 33% now
  9. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Radomiak Radom win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pogon Szczecin win 58%)
  10. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Radomiak Radom
  11. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 56% now
  12. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Radomiak Radom win 44%)
  13. 18′Pogon Szczecin level it on 17′ through Dimitrios Keramitsis. 1–1. 1–1 · 56–26–18
  14. 23′Radomiak Radom have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 54–27–19
  15. 24′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–2 · 28–26–46
  16. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Radomiak Radom
  17. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 28% now
  18. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Radomiak Radom win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Pogon Szczecin win 54%)
  19. 26′Christos Donis scores for Radomiak Radom on 25′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 27–26–46
  20. 33′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–49
  21. 38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Pogon Szczecin · On: Lukas Willen · Off: Benjamin Mendy
  22. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Dimitrios Keramitsis · Pogon Szczecin
  23. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  24. 44′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–53
  25. 45′SECOND HALF Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom
  26. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kamil Grosicki · Off: Jan Bieganski
  27. 47′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 2–2 · 46–36–18
  28. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom
  29. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
  30. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Radomiak Radom win 54%)
  31. 48′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 47–35–18
  32. 48′45′: Alessandro Riccio on the scoresheet for Pogon Szczecin, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 47–35–18
  33. 48′HALF-TIME Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom
  34. 49′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 3–2 · 82–14–4
  35. 49′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 82–14–4
  36. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Pogon Szczecin 3–2 Radomiak Radom
  37. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
  38. 50′Pogon Szczecin ahead on 49′ through Kamil Grosicki. 3–2. 3–2 · 82–14–4
  39. 54′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 4–2 · 97–3–0
  40. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Pogon Szczecin 4–2 Radomiak Radom
  41. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
  42. 55′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 97–3–0
  43. 56′Kamil Grosicki scores for Pogon Szczecin on 55′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 97–3–0
  44. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Radomiak Radom · On: Bi Irié Fernand Gouré · Off: Guilherme Luiz
  45. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Radomiak Radom · On: Lucas Lima Linhares · Off: Rafał Wolski
  46. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kellyn Acosta · Off: Maciej Wojciechowski
  47. 74′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 4–3 · 88–11–1
  48. 74′7 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 88–11–1
  49. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Radomiak Radom · On: Ibrahima Camará · Off: Christos Donis
  50. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom
  51. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Radomiak Radom · On: Che Nunnely · Off: Ronaldo Lumungo
  52. 75′74′: Jan Grzesik on the scoresheet for Radomiak Radom, making it 4–3. 4–3 · 89–11–1
  53. 77′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 4–3 · 90–10–1
  54. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pogon Szczecin · On: Isaiah·Eichie · Off: Paul Omo Mukairu
  55. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pogon Szczecin · On: Natan Lawa · Off: Darko Churlinov
  56. 84′Radomiak Radom have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 4–3. 4–3 · 94–6–0
  57. 84′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 4–4 · 12–82–6
  58. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Pogon Szczecin 4–4 Radomiak Radom
  59. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 12% now
  60. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Pogon Szczecin win 94%)
  61. 85′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 11–84–5
  62. 86′Radomiak Radom level it on 85′ through Bi Irié Fernand Gouré. 4–4. 4–4 · 10–85–5
  63. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
  64. 87′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 4–4 · 9–86–5
  65. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Radomiak Radom
  66. 90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Radomiak Radom
  67. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
  68. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 89%)
  69. 92′Radomiak Radom are down to ten from 89′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  70. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Radomiak Radom · On: Abdoul Tapsoba · Off: Conrado
  71. 110′16 shots for Radomiak Radom, 9 the other way, and they still trail 4–3. 4–3 · 99–1–0
  72. 111′It ends 4–3 after extra time; the record grades our 60% on Pogon Szczecin on the ninety-minute score. 4–3 · 100–0–0
  73. FTFULL TIME Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom after extra time
  74. FTPogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom · Pogon Szczecin win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pogon Szczecin are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pogon Szczecin 60%, draw 23%, Radomiak Radom 18%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak RadomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Pogon Szczecin win60%
Draw23%
Radomiak Radom win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueFlorian-Krygier-Stadion

RefereeBartosz Frankowski

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-2-3-1

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pogon Szczecin

Radomiak Radom

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 19 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Pogon Szczecin10+921
16Radomiak Radom11−158

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-2-3-1

77 V. Cojocaru

4 A. Riccio

13 D. Keramitsis

41 A. Szalai

23 B. Mendy

16 P. Dziczek

6 J. Biegański

21 D. Churlinov

35 M. Wojciechowski

18 P. Mukairu

22 Jordi Sánchez

Coach · Óscar García

Substitutes

3 · K. Acosta

10 · F. Čuić

30 · J. Czaplinski

98 · M. Dabrowski

11 · K. Grosicki

47 · N. Lawa

17 · J. Nsame

29 · L. Willen

9 · R. Molnár

31 · Nikolaos Nestoras Botis

20 · Isaiah·Eichie

Radomiak Radom

4-2-3-1

1 F. Majchrowicz

24 Z. Ouattara

14 S. Kingue

72 F. Koperski

97 Conrado

10 R. Alves

77 C. Donis

13 J. Grzesik

27 R. Wolski

90 Ronaldo Afonso

80 Guilherme Luiz

Coach · John Carver

Substitutes

99 · B. Gradecki

23 · K. Karasek

82 · Luquinhas

18 · Manu

7 · C. Nunnely

3 · K. Szcześniak

15 · A. Tapsoba

11 · F. Gouré

26 · Adrián Diéguez

8 · I. Camará

31 · Cezary Wołowiec

Our number · pogon szczecin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off
60% The market56%
Us60%
Market56%

We make Pogon Szczecin a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom2.02 – 1.02
Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 AugW4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 21 v 84 v 16
The market · Pogon Szczecin win56% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:07
Our probability · Pogon Szczecin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pogon Szczecin win60%56%+4
Draw23%23%0
Radomiak Radom win18%21%−3
Over 2.5 goals58%58%0
Both teams to score56%58%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals36%38%−2
Pogon Szczecin or draw82%79%+3
Pogon Szczecin clean sheet36%––
Radomiak Radom clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 5.7 4.1 2.5 1 8.8 10.6 5.0 2 9.7 9.8 5.0 3 6.5 6.6 3.4 4 3.3 3.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Pogon Szczecin down, Radomiak Radom across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsPOG 2–2 RAD · RAD 5–1 POG · RAD 2–0 POG · POG 0–1 RAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug

POGON SZCZECIN

DDWWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

RADOMIAK RADOM

WDLLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gornik Zabrze12+1027
2Lech Poznan10+1825
3Legia Warszawa11+1323
4Pogon Szczecin10+921
5Piast Gliwice12+420
6Zaglebie Lubin12019
7GKS Katowice11+618
8Wisla Krakow11+318
9Korona Kielce11−515
10Wisla Plock10−514
11Motor Lublin12−413
12Jagiellonia10−412
13Cracovia Krakow12−512
14Widzew Łódź12−111
15Wieczysta Kraków11−58
16Radomiak Radom11−158
17Slask Wroclaw11−86
18Raków Częstochowa11−116

The competition's standings before kick-off.