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Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa · SAT 24 OCT · Florian-Krygier-Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Pogon Szczecin win at 60%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Pogon Szczecin 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
- 1′KICK-OFF Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom
- 5′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Pogon Szczecin
- 10′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–24–42
- 10′Radomiak Radom score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 33–24–42
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Radomiak Radom
- 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 33% now
- 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Radomiak Radom win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pogon Szczecin win 58%)
- 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Radomiak Radom
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 56% now
- 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Radomiak Radom win 44%)
- 18′Pogon Szczecin level it on 17′ through Dimitrios Keramitsis. 1–1. 1–1 · 56–26–18
- 23′Radomiak Radom have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 54–27–19
- 24′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–2 · 28–26–46
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Radomiak Radom
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 28% now
- 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Radomiak Radom win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Pogon Szczecin win 54%)
- 26′Christos Donis scores for Radomiak Radom on 25′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 27–26–46
- 33′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–49
- 38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Pogon Szczecin · On: Lukas Willen · Off: Benjamin Mendy
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Dimitrios Keramitsis · Pogon Szczecin
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
- 44′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–53
- 45′SECOND HALF Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kamil Grosicki · Off: Jan Bieganski
- 47′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 2–2 · 46–36–18
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Radomiak Radom win 54%)
- 48′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 47–35–18
- 48′45′: Alessandro Riccio on the scoresheet for Pogon Szczecin, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 47–35–18
- 48′HALF-TIME Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom
- 49′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 3–2 · 82–14–4
- 49′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 82–14–4
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Pogon Szczecin 3–2 Radomiak Radom
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
- 50′Pogon Szczecin ahead on 49′ through Kamil Grosicki. 3–2. 3–2 · 82–14–4
- 54′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 4–2 · 97–3–0
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Pogon Szczecin 4–2 Radomiak Radom
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
- 55′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 97–3–0
- 56′Kamil Grosicki scores for Pogon Szczecin on 55′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 97–3–0
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Radomiak Radom · On: Bi Irié Fernand Gouré · Off: Guilherme Luiz
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Radomiak Radom · On: Lucas Lima Linhares · Off: Rafał Wolski
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kellyn Acosta · Off: Maciej Wojciechowski
- 74′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 4–3 · 88–11–1
- 74′7 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 88–11–1
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Radomiak Radom · On: Ibrahima Camará · Off: Christos Donis
- 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Radomiak Radom · On: Che Nunnely · Off: Ronaldo Lumungo
- 75′74′: Jan Grzesik on the scoresheet for Radomiak Radom, making it 4–3. 4–3 · 89–11–1
- 77′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 4–3 · 90–10–1
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pogon Szczecin · On: Isaiah·Eichie · Off: Paul Omo Mukairu
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pogon Szczecin · On: Natan Lawa · Off: Darko Churlinov
- 84′Radomiak Radom have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 4–3. 4–3 · 94–6–0
- 84′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 4–4 · 12–82–6
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Pogon Szczecin 4–4 Radomiak Radom
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 12% now
- 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Pogon Szczecin win 94%)
- 85′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 11–84–5
- 86′Radomiak Radom level it on 85′ through Bi Irié Fernand Gouré. 4–4. 4–4 · 10–85–5
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
- 87′We said Pogon Szczecin at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 4–4 · 9–86–5
- 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Radomiak Radom
- 90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Radomiak Radom
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Pogon Szczecin win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
- 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 89%)
- 92′Radomiak Radom are down to ten from 89′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–3 · 98–2–0
- 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Radomiak Radom · On: Abdoul Tapsoba · Off: Conrado
- 110′16 shots for Radomiak Radom, 9 the other way, and they still trail 4–3. 4–3 · 99–1–0
- 111′It ends 4–3 after extra time; the record grades our 60% on Pogon Szczecin on the ninety-minute score. 4–3 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom after extra time
- FTPogon Szczecin 4–3 Radomiak Radom · Pogon Szczecin win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Pogon Szczecin are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Pogon Szczecin 60%, draw 23%, Radomiak Radom 18%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Pogon Szczecin win60%
Radomiak Radom win18%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30
RoundMatchday 12
VenueFlorian-Krygier-Stadion
RefereeBartosz Frankowski
Match timeline
All events
Pogon SzczecinMIN
Radomiak RadomEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Pogon Szczecin
4-2-3-1
Radomiak Radom
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa
Last match: 19 Oct · Ekstraklasa
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Pogon Szczecin
4-2-3-1
77 V. Cojocaru
4 A. Riccio
13 D. Keramitsis
41 A. Szalai
23 B. Mendy
16 P. Dziczek
6 J. Biegański
21 D. Churlinov
35 M. Wojciechowski
18 P. Mukairu
22 Jordi Sánchez
Coach · Óscar García
Substitutes
3 · K. Acosta
10 · F. Čuić
30 · J. Czaplinski
98 · M. Dabrowski
11 · K. Grosicki
47 · N. Lawa
17 · J. Nsame
29 · L. Willen
9 · R. Molnár
31 · Nikolaos Nestoras Botis
20 · Isaiah·Eichie
Radomiak Radom
4-2-3-1
1 F. Majchrowicz
24 Z. Ouattara
14 S. Kingue
72 F. Koperski
97 Conrado
10 R. Alves
77 C. Donis
13 J. Grzesik
27 R. Wolski
90 Ronaldo Afonso
80 Guilherme Luiz
Coach · John Carver
Substitutes
99 · B. Gradecki
23 · K. Karasek
82 · Luquinhas
18 · Manu
7 · C. Nunnely
3 · K. Szcześniak
15 · A. Tapsoba
11 · F. Gouré
26 · Adrián Diéguez
8 · I. Camará
31 · Cezary Wołowiec
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Pogon Szczecin
4-2-3-1
77 V. Cojocaru
4 A. Riccio
13 D. Keramitsis
41 A. Szalai
23 B. Mendy
16 P. Dziczek
6 J. Biegański
21 D. Churlinov
35 M. Wojciechowski
18 P. Mukairu
22 Jordi Sánchez
Coach · Óscar García
Substitutes
3 · K. Acosta
10 · F. Čuić
30 · J. Czaplinski
98 · M. Dabrowski
11 · K. Grosicki
47 · N. Lawa
17 · J. Nsame
29 · L. Willen
9 · R. Molnár
31 · Nikolaos Nestoras Botis
20 · Isaiah·Eichie
Radomiak Radom
4-2-3-1
1 F. Majchrowicz
24 Z. Ouattara
14 S. Kingue
72 F. Koperski
97 Conrado
10 R. Alves
77 C. Donis
13 J. Grzesik
27 R. Wolski
90 Ronaldo Afonso
80 Guilherme Luiz
Coach · John Carver
Substitutes
99 · B. Gradecki
23 · K. Karasek
82 · Luquinhas
18 · Manu
7 · C. Nunnely
3 · K. Szcześniak
15 · A. Tapsoba
11 · F. Gouré
26 · Adrián Diéguez
8 · I. Camará
31 · Cezary Wołowiec
We make Pogon Szczecin a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin win | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Radomiak Radom win | 18% | 21% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Pogon Szczecin or draw | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Pogon Szczecin clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Radomiak Radom clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug
POGON SZCZECIN
RADOMIAK RADOM
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | −5 | 15 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | −5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | −4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | −4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | −5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | −1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | −5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | −15 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | −8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | −11 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Gornik Zabrze
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Piast Gliwice
Zaglebie Lubin
GKS Katowice
Wisla Krakow
Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
Jagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Raków Częstochowa