Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona Kielce POGON SZCZECIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pogon Szczecin win~~52%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.351

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.504

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pogon Szczecin win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pogon Szczecin was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce
4′Much as we predicted: Pogon Szczecin was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Alessandro Riccio · Pogon Szczecin
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Óscar García Junyent · Pogon Szczecin
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Maciej Wojciechowski · Pogon Szczecin
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
45′Maciej Wojciechowski scores for Pogon Szczecin on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–4
45′We published Pogon Szczecin at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–4
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Korona Kielce
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Korona Kielce · Maciej Wojciechowski
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
45′SECOND HALF Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Korona Kielce
46′Maciej Wojciechowski scores for Pogon Szczecin on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–4
46′HALF-TIME Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Korona Kielce
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Pogon Szczecin win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Korona Kielce · On: Martin Remacle · Off: Ondrej Lingr
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Korona Kielce · On: Daniel Bak · Off: Mariusz Stępiński
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Korona Kielce · Maciej Wojciechowski
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kamil Grosicki · Off: Darko Churlinov
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pogon Szczecin · On: Jean-Pierre Nsame · Off: Jordi Sánchez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kellyn Acosta · Off: Jan Bieganski
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona Kielce · Maciej Wojciechowski
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona Kielce · Paul Omo Mukairu (assist Jean-Pierre Nsame)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Korona Kielce · On: Dawid Błanik · Off: Camilo Mena
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Korona Kielce · On: Morgan Faßbender · Off: Patrik Hellebrand
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Pogon Szczecin · On: Lukas Willen · Off: Benjamin Mendy
92′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Pogon Szczecin · On: Isaiah·Eichie · Off: Paul Omo Mukairu
FTFULL TIME Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona Kielce
FTPogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona Kielce · Pogon Szczecin win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pogon Szczecin win52%

Draw26%

Korona Kielce win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueFlorian-Krygier-Stadion

RefereePiotr Lasyk

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-2-3-1

Korona Kielce

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pogon Szczecin

Korona Kielce

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-2-3-1

77 V. Cojocaru

4 A. Riccio

13 D. Keramitsis

41 A. Szalai

23 B. Mendy

16 P. Dziczek

6 J. Bieganski

21 D. Churlinov

35 M. Wojciechowski

18 P. Mukairu

22 J. Sanchez

Coach · Oscar Garcia Junyent

Substitutes

98 · K. Dabrowski

31 · N. Botis

20 · I. Eichie

29 · L. Willen

75 · A. Ossowski

3 · K. Acosta

47 · N. Lawa

11 · K. Grosicki

17 · J. Nsame

9 · R. Molnar

10 · F. Cuic

30 · J. Czaplinski

Korona Kielce

4-2-3-1

1 X. Dziekonski

71 W. Dlugosz

23 S. Rubezic

2 A. Mosor

6 M. Pieczek

35 K. Jakubczyk

18 P. Hellebrand

30 C. Mena

32 O. Lingr

19 M. Ameyaw

14 M. Stepinski

Coach · Jacek Zielinski

Substitutes

87 · R. Mamla

24 · B. Smolarczyk

44 · K. Sotiriou

67 · N. Barczak

10 · Nono

86 · S. Gustafson

11 · K. Matuszewski

7 · D. Blanik

8 · M. Remacle

22 · M. Fassbender

99 · D. Bak

Our number · pogon szczecin winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

52% The market42%

Us52%

~~Market~~42%

We make Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pogon szczecin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pogon Szczecin win	52%	42%	+10
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Korona Kielce win	22%	31%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Pogon Szczecin or draw	78%	69%	+9
Pogon Szczecin clean sheet	37%	–	–
Korona Kielce clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 6.1 3.5 1 10.7 12.5 5.8 2 9.6 9.5 4.7 3 5.3 5.2 2.6 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pogon Szczecin down, Korona Kielce across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,613 Ekstraklasa matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Korona Kielce away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Pogon Szczecin, 1.00 for Korona Kielce. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 16:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POG 2–1 KOR · KOR 1–0 POG · KOR 0–0 POG · POG 3–0 KOR

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

POGON SZCZECIN

WDDDWW3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

KORONA KIELCE

DWDWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
8	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
14	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3