Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:19

Piast Gliwice 2–1 Widzew Łódź PIAST GLIWICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Piast Gliwice win~~46%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Piast Gliwice win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Piast Gliwice 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź
3′Little has changed for our model: Piast Gliwice 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Jakub Labojko · Piast Gliwice
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Jusuf Gazibegovic · Widzew Łódź
45′HALF-TIME Piast Gliwice 0–0 Widzew Łódź
46′SECOND HALF Piast Gliwice 0–0 Widzew Łódź
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Piast Gliwice · On: Ivan Lima · Off: Jason Lokilo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Widzew Łódź · On: Karol Świderski · Off: Sebastian Bergier
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Widzew Łódź · On: Darian Males · Off: mariusz fornalczyk
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Widzew Łódź · On: Dani Silva · Off: Fran Alvarez
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Piast Gliwice 1–0 Widzew Łódź
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Piast Gliwice 1–0 Widzew Łódź · Giannis Papanikolaou
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Piast Gliwice 1–0 Widzew Łódź · Karol Świderski
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Piast Gliwice 1–1 Widzew Łódź · Karol Świderski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Widzew Łódź · On: Marcel Krajewski · Off: Jusuf Gazibegovic
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Widzew Łódź · On: Juljan Shehu · Off: Giannis Papanikolaou
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Piast Gliwice · On: Oskar·Lesniak · Off: Jakub Labojko
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Piast Gliwice · On: Andreas Katsantonis · Off: Samuel Ntamack Ndimba
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Mario García Alvear · Widzew Łódź
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Jakub Czerwiński · Piast Gliwice
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Piast Gliwice 2–1 Widzew Łódź · Karol Świderski
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Piast Gliwice 2–1 Widzew Łódź · Quentin Boisgard
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Piast Gliwice · On: Oliwier Maziarz · Off: Quentin Boisgard
FTFULL TIME Piast Gliwice 2–1 Widzew Łódź
FTPiast Gliwice 2–1 Widzew Łódź · Piast Gliwice win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Piast Gliwice win46%

Draw29%

Widzew Łódź win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:45

VenueStadion Miejski w Gliwicach

RefereeJaroslaw Przybyl

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice

4-4-2

Widzew Łódź

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Piast Gliwice

Widzew Łódź

21Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
13	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice

4-4-2

75 D. Gril

99 E. Twumasi

5 Juande

4 J. Czerwinski

36 J. Lewicki

98 J. Lokilo

27 J. Labojko

17 Q. Boisgard

80 H. Vallejo

19 S. Ntamack

11 L. Sanca

Coach · Daniel Mysliwiec

Substitutes

12 · M. Mendes-Dudzinski

22 · F. Sierralta

28 · F. Borowski

3 · E. Fikaj

15 · L. Pitan

77 · S. Mucha

31 · O. Lesniak

18 · O. Maziarz

10 · A. Katsantonis

90 · I. Lima

7 · J. Felix

91 · M. Kucharski

Widzew Łódź

4-1-4-1

1 B. Dragowski

70 J. Gazibegovic

25 P. Wisniewski

3 S. Kapuadi

40 M. Garcia

5 G. Papanikolaou

79 S. Biuk

10 F. Alvarez

8 E. Kornvig

7 M. Fornalczyk

99 S. Bergier

Coach · Mateusz Stolarski

Substitutes

30 · V. Ilic

4 · M. Zyro

14 · R. Visus

91 · M. Krajewski

18 · L. Selahi

6 · J. Shehu

19 · D. Males

80 · Dani Silva

28 · K. Swiderski

20 · A. Klukowski

90 · I. Vermesan

Our number · piast gliwice winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

46% The market35%

Us46%

~~Market~~35%

We make Piast Gliwice a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · piast gliwice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Piast Gliwice win	46%	35%	+11
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Widzew Łódź win	25%	38%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	43%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Piast Gliwice or draw	75%	62%	+13
Piast Gliwice clean sheet	37%	–	–
Widzew Łódź clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.1 7.9 4.4 1 11.7 13.6 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 8.9 4.4 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Piast Gliwice down, Widzew Łódź across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,613 Ekstraklasa matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Piast Gliwice at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Widzew Łódź away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Piast Gliwice, 0.99 for Widzew Łódź. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WID 2–1 PIA · PIA 0–2 WID · PIA 0–2 WID · WID 1–0 PIA

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

PIAST GLIWICE

LDWWWL3–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ

LDLDDD1–2 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
8	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
14	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3