Piast Gliwice v Cracovia Krakow prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Piast Gliwice 3–1 Cracovia Krakow PIAST GLIWICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Piast Gliwice win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.470

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Piast Gliwice win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Piast Gliwice was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Piast Gliwice v Cracovia Krakow
7′We published Piast Gliwice at 44%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Piast Gliwice 1–0 Cracovia Krakow
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Piast Gliwice win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
8′Jakub Czerwiński scores for Piast Gliwice on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Piast Gliwice win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
25′We published Piast Gliwice at 44%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Piast Gliwice 2–0 Cracovia Krakow
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Piast Gliwice win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
26′25′: Hugo Vallejo on the scoresheet for Piast Gliwice, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Piast Gliwice win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Piast Gliwice · On: Francisco Sierralta · Off: Jakub Czerwiński
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cracovia Krakow · On: Mateusz Klich · Off: Dijon Kameri
45′SECOND HALF Piast Gliwice 2–0 Cracovia Krakow
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Piast Gliwice · On: Oskar·Lesniak · Off: Szczepan·Mucha
46′We published Piast Gliwice at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Szczepan·Mucha · Piast Gliwice
48′HALF-TIME Piast Gliwice 2–0 Cracovia Krakow
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Otar Kakabadze · Cracovia Krakow
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Mateusz Klich · Cracovia Krakow
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′We published Piast Gliwice at 44%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–16–3
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Piast Gliwice 2–1 Cracovia Krakow
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Piast Gliwice win: 44% at kick-off, 81% now
63′Cracovia Krakow pull one back on 62′ through Karol Knap. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
71′We published Piast Gliwice at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Piast Gliwice · On: Ivan Lima · Off: Jakub Labojko
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cracovia Krakow · On: Kahveh Zahiroleslam · Off: Amir Al-Ammari
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cracovia Krakow · On: Ajdin Hasić · Off: Mohamed Berte
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Piast Gliwice win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Ivan Lima · Piast Gliwice
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Piast Gliwice · On: Maciej Kucharski · Off: Samuel Ntamack Ndimba
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Piast Gliwice · On: Andreas Katsantonis · Off: Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cracovia Krakow · On: Kamil Glik · Off: Brahim Traoré
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Cracovia Krakow · On: Mauro Perković · Off: Vincent Burlet
93′We published Piast Gliwice at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Piast Gliwice 3–1 Cracovia Krakow
94′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′Andreas Katsantonis scores for Piast Gliwice on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
97′Full time, 3–1. We called Piast Gliwice at 44% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Quentin Boisgard · Piast Gliwice
FTFULL TIME Piast Gliwice 3–1 Cracovia Krakow
FTPiast Gliwice 3–1 Cracovia Krakow · Piast Gliwice win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Piast Gliwice are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Piast Gliwice 44%, draw 29%, Cracovia Krakow 27%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Piast Gliwice v Cracovia KrakowBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Piast Gliwice win44%

Draw29%

Cracovia Krakow win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski w Gliwicach

RefereePawel Malec

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice

4-4-2

Cracovia Krakow

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Piast Gliwice

Cracovia Krakow

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Piast Gliwice	11	+2	17
12	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice

4-4-2

75 D. Gril

99 E. Twumasi

5 Juande Rivas

4 J. Czerwiński

36 J. Lewicki

77 S. Mucha

27 J. Łabojko

17 Q. Boisgard

80 Hugo Vallejo

19 S. Ntamack Ndimba

11 Leandro Sanca

Coach · D. Myśliwiec

Substitutes

7 · Jorge Félix

28 · F. Borowski

47 · J. Grelich

10 · A. Katsantonis

31 · O. Leśniak

90 · Ivan Lima

18 · O. Maziarz

12 · Marcel Mendes-Dudziński

15 · L. Pitan

22 · F. Sierralta

91 · Maciej Kucharski

3 · E. Fikaj

Cracovia Krakow

4-2-3-1

13 S. Madejski

25 O. Kakabadze

4 G. Henriksson

61 B. Traoré

28 V. Burlet

20 K. Knap

6 Amir Al Ammari

90 M. Berte

70 D. Kameri

17 M. Minchev

11 L. Nordås

Coach · B. Grzelak

Substitutes

77 · J. Chrapusta

29 · W. Dej

15 · K. Glik

14 · A. Hasić

43 · M. Klich

39 · M. Perković

79 · D. Piła

5 · B. Selan

18 · Kahveh Zahiroleslam

22 · D. Baumgartner

91 · A. Bobek

27 · S. Eyob-Abraha

Our number · piast gliwice winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Piast Gliwice a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Piast Gliwice v Cracovia Krakow~~1.41 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~8 v 12

~~The market · Piast Gliwice win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Piast Gliwice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Piast Gliwice win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Cracovia Krakow win	27%	35%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	57%	−12
Both teams to score	50%	61%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	36%	−12
Piast Gliwice or draw	73%	65%	+8
Piast Gliwice clean sheet	35%	–	–
Cracovia Krakow clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.6 7.9 4.7 1 10.9 13.6 6.6 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.7 3 4.0 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Piast Gliwice down, Cracovia Krakow across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,629 Ekstraklasa matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Piast Gliwice at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cracovia Krakow away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Piast Gliwice, 1.06 for Cracovia Krakow. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 10:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CRA 2–3 PIA · PIA 0–0 CRA · PIA 0–0 CRA · CRA 1–1 PIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug

PIAST GLIWICE

WWWLWD2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

CRACOVIA KRAKOW

LLLLWD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
6	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
7	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	+2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	−5	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12
13	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	−15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6