Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Motor Lublin 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin MOTOR LUBLIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Motor Lublin win~~42%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.799

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Motor Lublin win at 42%.
2′KICK-OFF Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin
3′Little has changed for our model: Motor Lublin 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Yacine Bourhane · Motor Lublin
35′🟨 YELLOW · 28' David Čolina · Zaglebie Lubin
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Motor Lublin win 36%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Damian Michalski · Off: David Čolina
45′SECOND HALF Motor Lublin 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin
46′We said Motor Lublin at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–66
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Motor Lublin 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Motor Lublin win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Zaglebie Lubin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 40%)
46′HALF-TIME Motor Lublin 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin
47′Zaglebie Lubin ahead on 45′ through Sebastian Kerk. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
48′We said Motor Lublin at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Motor Lublin 0–2 Zaglebie Lubin
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Motor Lublin win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
49′Marcel Regula scores for Zaglebie Lubin on 48′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–91
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Motor Lublin · On: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao · Off: Karol Czubak Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Motor Lublin · On: Mateusz Legowski · Off: Makan Aiko Corrected
67′12 shots for Motor Lublin, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
73′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Jakub·Sypek · Off: Mateusz Dziewiatowski
73′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Filip Szymczak · Off: Sebastian Kerk
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Motor Lublin · On: Alioune Oumar Tall · Off: Christopher Simon
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Motor Lublin · On: Thomas Santos · Off: Kamil Lukoszek
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–17–81
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Motor Lublin 1–2 Zaglebie Lubin
76′74′: Mateusz Legowski on the scoresheet for Motor Lublin, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
77′18 shots for Motor Lublin, 8 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Mateusz Grzybek · Off: Marcel Regula
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Karol Czubak · Motor Lublin
81′20 shots for Motor Lublin, 9 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Motor Lublin · On: Mateusz Posmyk · Off: Filip Luberecki
87′We said Motor Lublin at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–88–6
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Motor Lublin 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Motor Lublin win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Zaglebie Lubin win 93%)
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–89–5
88′Motor Lublin level it on 88′ through Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–89–5
89′Motor Lublin level it on 87′ through Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–90–4
90′24 shots for Motor Lublin, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 5–91–4
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Mateusz Grzybek · Zaglebie Lubin
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Motor Lublin win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Mihael Mlinarić · Off: Josip Ćorluka
FTFULL TIME Motor Lublin 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin
FTMotor Lublin 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin · Motor Lublin win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Motor Lublin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Motor Lublin 42%, draw 27%, Zaglebie Lubin 31%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Motor Lublin v Zaglebie LubinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Motor Lublin win42%

Draw27%

Zaglebie Lubin win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMotor Lublin Arena

RefereeMateusz Jenda

Line-ups

Motor Lublin

4-1-4-1

Zaglebie Lubin

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Motor Lublin

Zaglebie Lubin

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 18 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	0	18
12	Motor Lublin	11	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin

4-1-4-1

33 G. Tratnik

17 K. Lukoszek

18 B. Bereszyński

4 T. Plavotić

24 F. Luberecki

27 Y. Bourhane

30 M. Ndiaye

9 Rony Lopes

8 C. Simon

70 M. Aïko

10 K. Czubak

Coach · M. Misiura

Substitutes

5 · A. Akatov

90 · Dominik Gregorski

23 · F. Haxha

2 · Paskal Konrad Meyer

71 · M. Popa

77 · Mateusz Posmyk

29 · T. Santos

47 · Alioune Tall

22 · M. Zlomanczuk

11 · Fábio Ronaldo

6 · M. Łęgowski

Zaglebie Lubin

4-5-1

33 Z. Alomerović

5 A. Ławniczak

25 M. Nalepa

3 R. Yakuba

16 J. Ćorluka

39 F. Kocaba

20 M. Dziewiatowski

8 D. Dąbrowski

6 D. Čolina

37 S. Kerk

44 M. Reguła

Coach · L. Ojrzynski

Substitutes

13 · M. Grzybek

30 · D. Hładun

26 · J. Kolan

19 · S. Łyczko

4 · D. Michalski

31 · I. Orlikowski

99 · C. Popielec

7 · J. Sypek

18 · F. Szymczak

11 · A. Woźniak

88 · M. Mlinarić

94 · M. Urbanski

Our number · motor lublin winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

42% The market48%

Us42%

~~Market~~48%

We make Motor Lublin a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin~~1.49 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 18~~12 v 7

~~The market · Motor Lublin win~~48% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Motor Lublin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motor Lublin win	42%	48%	−6
Draw	27%	27%	0
Zaglebie Lubin win	31%	25%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Motor Lublin or draw	69%	75%	−6
Motor Lublin clean sheet	29%	–	–
Zaglebie Lubin clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.5 7.1 5.1 2.1 1 8.6 12.9 7.5 3.1 2 7.1 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motor Lublin down, Zaglebie Lubin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,627 Ekstraklasa matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.8% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motor Lublin at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Motor Lublin, 1.25 for Zaglebie Lubin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MOT 1–0 ZAG · ZAG 2–2 MOT · MOT 1–0 ZAG · ZAG 1–2 MOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 29 Aug

MOTOR LUBLIN

LLLDWW0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN

DWWLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	+10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	0	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	+2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	−5	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	−4	12
13	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
14	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	−15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6