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Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw

Motor Lublin

3–2Full time

Slask Wroclaw

Ekstraklasa · SAT 17 OCT · Motor Lublin Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Motor Lublin 3–2 Slask Wroclaw MOTOR LUBLIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Motor Lublin win~~43%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay32 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Motor Lublin win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Motor Lublin 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw
11′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–22–58
11′A goal for Slask Wroclaw on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–22–58
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Motor Lublin 0–1 Slask Wroclaw
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Slask Wroclaw win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Motor Lublin win 20%)
16′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
23′Motor Lublin have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–60
26′Motor Lublin have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 16–23–61
32′12 shots for Motor Lublin, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–61
36′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′16 shots for Motor Lublin, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–65
45′SECOND HALF Motor Lublin 0–1 Slask Wroclaw
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Slask Wroclaw · On: Malaly Dembele · Off: luka marjanac
48′HALF-TIME Motor Lublin 0–1 Slask Wroclaw
51′PENALTY MISSED · 50' Karol Czubak · Motor Lublin
53′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
60′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–47–23
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Motor Lublin 1–1 Slask Wroclaw
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Slask Wroclaw win 23%)
61′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
61′20 shots for Motor Lublin, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 29–48–23
63′61′: Makan Aiko on the scoresheet for Motor Lublin, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–50–22
64′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–51–22
64′Motor Lublin have had 21 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 27–51–22
65′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 27–52–21
65′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–21–73
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Przemyslaw Banaszak · Slask Wroclaw
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Motor Lublin 1–2 Slask Wroclaw
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Slask Wroclaw win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–21–74
69′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
70′Slask Wroclaw ahead on 66′ through Malaly Dembele. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–77
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Motor Lublin · On: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao · Off: Kamil Lukoszek
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye · Motor Lublin
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slask Wroclaw · On: Leltsin Jeronimo Semedo Camoes · Off: Przemyslaw Banaszak
77′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 2–2 · 17–69–14
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Motor Lublin 2–2 Slask Wroclaw
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Slask Wroclaw win 14%)
78′24 shots for Motor Lublin, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 16–70–13
78′Christopher Simon scores for Motor Lublin on 77′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 16–70–13
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 16–70–13
80′We said Motor Lublin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Slask Wroclaw · On: Jan Jurčec · Off: Alex Timossi Andersson
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Motor Lublin · On: Thomas Santos · Off: Makan Aiko
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Motor Lublin · On: Alioune Oumar Tall · Off: Rony Lopes
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Slask Wroclaw · On: Grzegorz Tomasiewicz · Off: Eniss Shabani
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Slask Wroclaw · On: Adam Ciućka · Off: Piotr Samiec-Talar
87′28 shots for Motor Lublin, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 7–87–6
91′We said Motor Lublin at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–2 · 97–3–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Motor Lublin 3–2 Slask Wroclaw
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Motor Lublin win: 43% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Motor Lublin win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
92′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 97–3–0
93′90′: Yacine Bourhane on the scoresheet for Motor Lublin, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Karol Niemczycki · Slask Wroclaw
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Motor Lublin · On: Paskal Konrad Meyer · Off: Christopher Simon
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Marc Llinares · Slask Wroclaw
98′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Marc Llinares · Slask Wroclaw
102′It ends 3–2 after extra time; the record grades our 43% on Motor Lublin on the ninety-minute score. 3–2 · 100–0–0
102′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' Karol Czubak · Motor Lublin
FTFULL TIME Motor Lublin 3–2 Slask Wroclaw
FTMotor Lublin 3–2 Slask Wroclaw · Motor Lublin win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Motor Lublin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Motor Lublin 43%, draw 26%, Slask Wroclaw 31%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Motor Lublin v Slask WroclawBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Motor Lublin win43%

Draw26%

Slask Wroclaw win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMotor Lublin Arena

RefereeSebastian Krasny

Line-ups

Motor Lublin

4-1-4-1

Slask Wroclaw

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Motor Lublin

Slask Wroclaw

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Motor Lublin	10	−5	9
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin

4-1-4-1

33 G. Tratnik

17 K. Lukoszek

39 M. Bartoš

4 T. Plavotić

24 F. Luberecki

27 Y. Bourhane

30 M. Ndiaye

9 Rony Lopes

8 C. Simon

70 M. Aïko

10 K. Czubak

Coach · M. Misiura

Substitutes

71 · M. Popa

23 · F. Haxha

18 · B. Bereszyński

5 · A. Akatov

2 · Paskal Konrad Meyer

29 · T. Santos

6 · M. Łęgowski

47 · Alioune Tall

11 · Fábio Ronaldo

22 · M. Zlomanczuk

77 · Mateusz Posmyk

90 · Dominik Gregorski

Slask Wroclaw

5-4-1

1 K. Niemczycki

21 A. Timossi Andersson

33 E. Matsenko

5 L. Ba

44 M. Malec

8 Marc Llinares

7 P. Samiec-Talar

17 K. Linetty

77 E. Shabani

11 L. Marjanac

19 P. Banaszak

Coach · A. Šimundža

Substitutes

10 · M. Dembélé

88 · A. Ciucka

18 · K. Borys

20 · G. Tomasiewicz

2 · D. Szala

27 · Jan Jurčec

4 · M. Dijakovic

25 · M. Szromnik

9 · Ieltsin Camões

Our number · motor lublin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make Motor Lublin a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw~~1.60 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~14 v 17

~~The market · Motor Lublin win~~50% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Motor Lublin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motor Lublin win	43%	50%	−7
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Slask Wroclaw win	31%	24%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	55%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Motor Lublin or draw	69%	76%	−7
Motor Lublin clean sheet	27%	–	–
Slask Wroclaw clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.5 6.2 4.7 2.1 1 7.7 12.3 7.4 3.3 2 6.9 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.7 4.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motor Lublin down, Slask Wroclaw across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,620 Ekstraklasa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motor Lublin at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Slask Wroclaw away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Motor Lublin, 1.32 for Slask Wroclaw. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–1 MOT · MOT 2–1 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 Aug

MOTOR LUBLIN

DLLLDW1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

SLASK WROCLAW

DDLLLL3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	+7	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
14	Motor Lublin	10	−5	9
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6