Legia Warszawa v Wisla Krakow prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla Krakow LEGIA WARSZAWA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Legia Warszawa win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.361

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Legia Warszawa win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Legia Warszawa was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
15′Much as we predicted: Legia Warszawa was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–24
19′18′ and it is 1–0: Lukasz Zjawinski on the scoresheet for Legia Warszawa. 1–0 · 76–16–8
22′We published Legia Warszawa at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
25′18′ and it is 1–0: Lukasz Zjawinski on the scoresheet for Legia Warszawa. 1–0 · 76–16–8
28′We published Legia Warszawa at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
57′We published Legia Warszawa at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
73′Legia Warszawa ahead on 70′ through Rafal Adamski. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′We published Legia Warszawa at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Legia Warszawa at 51%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Darijo Grujcic · Wisla Krakow
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wisla Krakow · On: Oliwier Plawinski · Off: Julius Ertlthaler
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
88′Legia Warszawa ahead on 70′ through Rafal Adamski. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Legia Warszawa win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
90′We published Legia Warszawa at 51%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Legia Warszawa · On: Michal Sevcik · Off: Jakub Zewlakow
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Legia Warszawa · On: Arkadiusz Reca · Off: Paweł Wszołek
FTFULL TIME Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla Krakow
FTLegia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla Krakow · Legia Warszawa win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Legia Warszawa win51%

Draw25%

Wisla Krakow win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:15

VenuePolish Army Stadium

RefereeDamian Sylwestrzak

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa

3-4-3

Wisla Krakow

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Legia Warszawa

Wisla Krakow

21Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Legia Warszawa

3-4-3

89 O. Hindrich

91 K. Piatkowski

8 R. Augustyniak

5 R. Deziel

22 P. Wszolek

4 D. Szymanski

67 B. Kapustka

11 K. Chodyna

17 M. Szczepaniak

79 L. Zjawinski

9 R. Adamski

Coach · Marek Papszun

Substitutes

1 · I. Brkic

2 · S. Fukuda

24 · Z. Arsenic

13 · A. Reca

23 · M. Sevcik

6 · H. Arreiol

53 · W. Urbanski

20 · J. Zewlakow

62 · F. Stepniewski

14 · A. Colak

Wisla Krakow

4-4-1-1

1 M. Lubik

34 R. Giger

6 A. Uryga

29 D. Grujcic

52 J. Krzyzanowski

10 F. Duarte

41 K. Duda

12 J. Igbekeme

17 M. Bozic

7 J. Ertlthaler

9 A. Rodado

Coach · Mariusz Jop

Substitutes

93 · B. Neugebauer

97 · W. Biedrzycki

4 · R. Mikulec

13 · M. Maisonneuve

2 · J. Lelieveld

50 · M. Kutwa

8 · M. Carbo

23 · V. A. Meseguer Cavas

32 · O. Plawinski

Our number · legia warszawa winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Legia Warszawa a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · legia warszawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Legia Warszawa win	51%	45%	+5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Wisla Krakow win	24%	28%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Legia Warszawa or draw	76%	72%	+5
Legia Warszawa clean sheet	33%	–	–
Wisla Krakow clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.7 5.5 3.6 1 8.9 11.9 6.2 2.4 2 8.6 9.5 5.4 2.0 3 5.0 5.6 3.1 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Legia Warszawa down, Wisla Krakow across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,613 Ekstraklasa matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Legia Warszawa at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wisla Krakow away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Legia Warszawa, 1.13 for Wisla Krakow. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEG 2–1 WIS · WIS 1–0 LEG

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

LEGIA WARSZAWA

WDDWDW5–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

WISLA KRAKOW

LDWDWW1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
8	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
14	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3