Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznan prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Legia WarszawaDrawLech Poznan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Legia Warszawa 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Legia Warszawa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Legia Warszawa 37%, draw 27%, Lech Poznan 36%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Legia Warszawa v Lech PoznanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Legia Warszawa win37%

Draw27%

Lech Poznan win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePolish Army Stadium

RefereeSzymon Marciniak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Legia Warszawa

Lech Poznan

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Lech Poznan v Sunderland, Juventus v Rennes, and more: Europa League – liveThe Guardian · 22 Oct 16:15 · Lech Poznan, Sunderland, Juventus, Rennes, Europa Fc

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · legia warszawa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Legia Warszawa a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznan~~1.43 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 25~~3 v 2

~~The market · Legia Warszawa win~~36% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Legia Warszawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Legia Warszawa win	37%	36%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Lech Poznan win	36%	37%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Legia Warszawa or draw	64%	63%	+1
Legia Warszawa clean sheet	25%	–	–
Lech Poznan clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.1 7.3 5.8 2.7 1 7.6 12.8 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 2.9 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Legia Warszawa down, Lech Poznan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,629 Ekstraklasa matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Legia Warszawa at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lech Poznan away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Legia Warszawa, 1.39 for Lech Poznan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEC 4–0 LEG · LEG 0–0 LEC · LEC 1–2 LEG · LEG 0–1 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug

LEGIA WARSZAWA

DWDWWD1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

LECH POZNAN

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
6	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
7	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
8	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	−15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6